北京市汽车保有量增长的原因及对交通拥堵影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 22:10

本文选题：汽车保有量 + 交通拥堵　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着人们生活水平的不断提高,汽车保有量迅猛增长,城市交通拥堵问题越来越严重。面对北京市小汽车快速发展带来的交通拥堵问题,北京市提出了限行的政策。无论是限制小汽车还是提倡小汽车,不可否认的是当前北京市汽车保有量已经达到了一个饱和的状态,而且仍然具有继续增长的趋势,这也意味着北京市交通拥堵现象会越来越严重。针对这一现状,提出了本文的研究问题:哪些因素促使北京市汽车保有量的快速增长?快速增长的汽车保有量是如何影响北京市交通拥堵的?文章第一部分探讨了北京市汽车保有量快速发展的整体概况,大致分为两个方面:北京市汽车保有量发展的历程及现状,分析北京市汽车保有量快速增长的原因。通过搜集大量相关数据,运用因子分析法定量分析影响北京市汽车保有量的各种可量化因素。结合定量分析的结果,及宏观政策(汽车产业政策、汽车市场发展)、社会因素(汽车使用成本低、公共交通不完善)等定性分析导致汽车保有量快速增长的原因。第二部分主要分析北京市汽车保有量快速增长对城市交通拥堵的影响,大致分为两个方面。第一方面利用"公地悲剧"模型分析汽车保有量对城市交通的影响机理,居民过度使用汽车,道路资源被过度使用的现象就会发生,这就会带来道路拥堵、交通事故、汽车尾气等典型的负外部性现象。交通事故频发及停车难问题,反过来又会进一步加剧交通拥堵现状。第二方面具体分析汽车保有量快速增长对交通拥堵的影响,利用汽车保有量与城市道路具体数据,分析车路矛盾是导致交通拥堵的直接原因。再以洛杉矶为例,具体分析汽车、道路、交通拥堵之间的恶性循环矛盾,警醒北京拒绝选择"依车发展"的蔓延式城市化道路,汽车化城市必须从仅仅增加城市道路供给转向改变道路需求结构,引导居民从小汽车出行转向公交车、自行车和步行等绿色交通模式。建议通过经济杠杆、宏观调控、人文教育等手段来限制我国汽车保有量快速发展,为解决交通拥堵提供合理依据。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the rapid growth of vehicle ownership, the problem of urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious. In the face of the problem of traffic jam caused by the rapid development of cars in Beijing, Beijing has put forward the policy of restricting traffic. Whether it is restricting cars or advocating cars, it is undeniable that the number of cars held in Beijing has reached a saturated state at present, and still has a trend of continued growth. This also means that traffic congestion in Beijing will become more and more serious. In view of this situation, this paper puts forward the research question: what factors promote the rapid growth of the automobile ownership in Beijing? How does the rapid growth of car ownership affect traffic congestion in Beijing? The first part of the article discusses the whole situation of the rapid development of Beijing's automobile ownership, which is divided into two aspects: the course and present situation of the development of Beijing's automobile ownership, and the reasons for the rapid growth of Beijing's automobile ownership. By collecting a large number of relevant data, the quantitative factors affecting the car ownership in Beijing are quantitatively analyzed by factor analysis method. Combined with the result of quantitative analysis, and the qualitative analysis of the reasons for the rapid growth of automobile ownership, such as the policy of automobile industry, the development of automobile market and social factors (low cost of automobile use, imperfect public transportation), etc. The second part mainly analyzes the impact of the rapid growth of Beijing automobile ownership on urban traffic congestion, which can be divided into two aspects. On the one hand, the "tragedy of Commons" model is used to analyze the influence mechanism of vehicle ownership on urban traffic. The phenomenon of excessive use of cars by residents and overuse of road resources will occur, which will lead to road congestion and traffic accidents. Vehicle exhaust and other typical negative externalities. Frequent traffic accidents and difficult parking problems, in turn, will further aggravate the traffic congestion situation. The second part analyzes the impact of the rapid growth of vehicle ownership on traffic congestion. Using the specific data of vehicle ownership and urban roads, the paper analyzes that the contradiction between vehicle and road is the direct cause of traffic congestion. Taking Los Angeles as an example, this paper specifically analyzes the vicious circle contradiction between cars, roads, and traffic jams, and cautions that Beijing refuses to choose the sprawling urbanization road "according to the development of cars." The motorized city must shift from merely increasing the supply of urban roads to changing the structure of road demand and guiding residents from car travel to green transport modes such as buses bicycles and walking. It is suggested that the rapid development of automobile ownership in China should be restricted by means of economic leverage, macro-control and humanistic education, so as to provide a reasonable basis for solving traffic congestion.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D669.3

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