中国老龄产业有效需求研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 15:49

本文选题：有效需求 + 老龄产业　；参考：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪70年代以来,我国计划生育政策的执行、经济社会发展水平的提升、人们重生育质量轻生育数量观念的转变,加速了我国人口的自然转变过程,使老龄化社会加速到来,且老龄化程度不断加深。近年来,得益于我国的经济发展水平的高速率增长,老龄人群(尤其是城镇老龄人群)经济能力大幅增强,对物质及精神文化追求有所提升,各类需求不断增长,日益庞大的老龄消费群体促进形成了新的产业——老龄产业。不同于西方老龄化国家成熟的老龄产业市场,我国的人口老龄化呈现出人口基数大、高龄化趋势明显、老龄化进程速度快等特点,使得我们的老龄产业的发展速度不能与老龄化程度的加深速度相匹配。现阶段我国老龄产业仍处于发展初期,相关政策没有实现精准对接、仍然存在产业结构不合理、产业规制不完善、细分产业发展不均衡等问题,老龄市场对老年人的特殊需求无法满足,致使老年人"需求旺盛,有效需求不足"问题频发。另外,仍有部分高龄或贫困老年人的基本生活开支来源不稳定,生活水平不高,该群体的需求也难以形成有效需求得以释放。由此,对老龄产业进行有效需求问题研究,进而推动老龄产业健康有序发展,使老龄产业成为经济的新支点,是我国经济发展的热点问题之一。首先,本文对老龄产业概念和涵盖内容进行了清晰界定。立足宏观和中观层面,以有效需求理论作为研究基础,剖析老龄产业整体及其细分行业的发展现状,总结当前老龄产业发展中存在的共性问题;立足微观层面,从老龄人群的收入水平和消费结构两个方面对老龄人群的有效需求进行研究,运用GA-BP算法进行可支配收入预测,运用交叉分析法进行消费偏好分析,得出不同年龄段老龄人群的收入结构和消费偏好差异。最后,本文从政策层面、产业层面及企业层面着力探讨了促进老龄产业健康有序发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, the implementation of family planning policy, the improvement of the level of economic and social development, and the transformation of people's concept of valuing fertility quality over fertility quantity have accelerated the natural transformation of China's population and accelerated the arrival of an aging society. And the degree of aging is deepening. In recent years, thanks to the high rate of economic development in our country, the economic ability of the elderly (especially the elderly in urban areas) has been greatly enhanced, their pursuit of material and spiritual culture has been improved, and various kinds of demands have been growing. The growing elderly consumer groups promote the formation of a new industry-the aging industry. Different from the mature aging industry market in the aging countries in the West, the aging population in our country has the characteristics of large population base, obvious aging trend, and rapid aging process. So that our aging industry development speed and aging degree of deepening speed can not match. At this stage, China's aging industry is still in the early stage of development, the relevant policies have not achieved accurate docking, there are still some problems, such as unreasonable industrial structure, imperfect industrial regulation, unbalanced development of subdivision industries, etc. The aging market can not meet the special needs of the elderly, resulting in the elderly "strong demand, insufficient effective demand" problem frequently. In addition, there are still some elderly or poor elderly people with unstable sources of basic living expenses and low standard of living, and it is difficult for this group to form effective needs to be released. Therefore, it is one of the hot issues in the economic development of our country to study the effective demand of the aging industry, to promote the healthy and orderly development of the aging industry, and to make the aging industry become the new fulcrum of the economy. First of all, the concept and coverage of the aging industry are clearly defined in this paper. Based on the theory of effective demand, this paper analyzes the current situation of the development of the aging industry as a whole and its subdivision industries, summarizes the common problems existing in the current development of the aging industry, and bases itself on the micro level. This paper studies the effective demand of the aged from the income level and consumption structure of the aged, forecasts the disposable income by using GA-BP algorithm, and analyzes the consumption preference by cross-analysis. The differences of income structure and consumption preference of different age groups were obtained. Finally, this paper discusses the policy suggestions to promote the healthy and orderly development of the aging industry from the policy level, the industrial level and the enterprise level.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;D669.3

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