中东变局以来的伊朗与以色列关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 22:20

本文选题：伊朗 + 以色列　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在中东地区,伊朗和以色列一直保持着十分明显的对抗关系。1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命之前,伊朗和以色列在承认彼此共同利益的前提下,建立了非正式的合作,形成了安全联盟。然而,伊朗伊斯兰革命及其此后所建立的政权,开启了一个受新的意识形态所控制的伊朗。伊以双方均重新评估各自的国家利益,两国逐渐走向公开的恶化。中东剧变以来,随着“阿拉伯之春”的火烧燎原之势在中东迅速蔓延,以及伊朗核问题的进一步发展,两国之间的关系也走向了对立的新高度。因此,本文在全面地梳理两国之间关系的基础上,阐述中东剧变以来伊朗和以色列关系的现状,探讨在伊朗核问题及后伊核协议时代伊以双方矛盾对立的内在根源,分析影响两国关系的诸多外在因素。文章主要分为四个部分。第一部分,伊朗和以色列关系的历史演变。着重从历史发展的角度,梳理两个国家之间关系的演变脉络。伊朗伊斯兰革命前,伊以两国基于各自的利益,建立了以事实上的合作为主的短暂联盟,双方之间主要以石油和武器交易为主。第二部分,中东剧变以来的伊以关系。2011年的“阿拉伯之春”引发中东地区局势的新一轮变化,原本局部冲突动乱、整体相对平衡的发展格局被打破,中东陷入新的乱局。中东变局对伊朗和以色列双方产生影响。伊朗在剧变后谋求大国地位的野心进一步增强,而以色列担心阿拉伯民主革命结果的不确定性以及对伊朗趁机崛起的警惕。第三部分,伊核问题全面协议的签订以及后伊核协议时代的伊以关系。随着2015年7月14日伊朗核问题达成全面协议,伊朗用暂时的妥协与国际社会讨价还价,为自身的发展迎来全新的机遇期。而以色列对此强烈反对,认为这对以色列的国家安全和生存带来了严重挑战,通过不断向美国及国际社会施压等方式,表明自身的反对立场。第四部分,伊以关系演变的影响因素。包括域外大国美国在中东的利益争夺,中东地区自身的和平进程,以及伊以双方基于各自国家利益所选择的外交政策。最后,对伊以关系在未来得以改善的可行性进行了浅显的分析。虽然在今天,以色列认为伊朗是一个强劲的对手和潜在的威胁,但是不排除未来伊以将有可能在环境和政策选择的转变下,改善彼此之间的关系,推动中东地区的和平进程。
[Abstract]:Iran and Israel have maintained clear confrontational relations in the Middle East. Prior to the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, Iran and Israel established informal cooperation and formed a security alliance in recognition of each other's common interests. However, the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the regime it later established opened up an Iran controlled by new ideologies. Both sides reassessed their national interests, and the two countries gradually headed for an open deterioration. Since the dramatic changes in the Middle East, with the rapid spread of the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East and the further development of the Iranian nuclear issue, the relations between the two countries have also moved to a new level of opposition. Therefore, on the basis of comprehensively combing the relations between the two countries, this paper expounds the present situation of the relations between Iran and Israel since the dramatic changes in the Middle East, and probes into the internal causes of the contradiction between Iran and Israel in the Iran nuclear issue and the era of the post-Iraqi nuclear agreement. Analysis of many external factors affecting the relationship between the two countries. The article is divided into four parts. The first part is the historical evolution of the relationship between Iran and Israel. From the perspective of historical development, combing the evolution of the relationship between the two countries. Prior to the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the two countries, based on their respective interests, established a brief alliance based on de facto cooperation, mainly on oil and arms transactions. The second part, the relations between Iraq and Israel since the dramatic changes in the Middle East. The "Arab Spring" in 2011 triggered a new round of changes in the situation in the Middle East. The original local conflicts and disturbances, the overall relatively balanced development pattern was broken, and the Middle East fell into a new mess. The change in the Middle East has had an impact on both Iran and Israel. Iran's ambition to seek power after the upheaval has increased, while Israel fears uncertainty about the outcome of the Arab democratic revolution and vigilance about Iran's rise. The third part, the signing of the comprehensive agreement on the Iraqi nuclear issue and the Iraq-Israel relationship in the post-Iraqi nuclear agreement era. With a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue reached on July 14, 2015, Iran haggles with the international community with a temporary compromise, ushering in a new period of opportunity for its own development. Israel strongly opposes this, saying that it poses a serious challenge to Israel's national security and survival, and expresses its opposition by constantly pressing the United States and the international community. The fourth part, the influence factors of the evolution of the relationship between Iraq and Israel. It includes the scramble for the interests of the United States in the Middle East, the peace process in the Middle East itself, and the foreign policy chosen by Iraq and Israel on the basis of their respective national interests. Finally, the feasibility of improving the relationship between Iraq and Israel in the future is analyzed. While Israel today sees Iran as a strong opponent and a potential threat, it does not rule out the possibility that in the future it will improve its relations with each other and promote the peace process in the Middle East under changing circumstances and policy options.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D815.4

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