拒优战略:中美亚太主导权竞争

发布时间：2018-06-21 02:32

本文选题：中美关系 + 亚太地区　；参考：《当代亚太》2017年01期

【摘要】：中美两国是亚太地区的重要大国,随着两国间实力差距的不断缩小,双方的竞争有所加剧,并且日益具有地缘影响和战略意义,致使中美亚太主导权竞争逐渐显现。在此情况下,两国采取何种战略进行和平竞争尤为关键。无论是权力制衡、规范制衡、对冲战略还是共同进化理论,都不足以完整解释当前中美亚太战略的互动。在两国竞争凸显且目前很难取得和解的情况下,文章尝试提出一种拒优战略,以更好地理解两国间的主导权竞争。拒优战略旨在削弱对手竞争优势、滞缓竞争对手获得主导权,主要通过自我权力增强、塑造制度优势、阻遏对手权势转化等手段加以实施,具有强烈的预期主导性、针对性、不合作性和复合性特征。当前中美双方在亚太地区的战略行为表明,两国都在实施拒优战略,不过其结果具有很大的不确定性,既有可能导致亚太地区的制度竞争激烈、地区分化加剧,也有可能促使中美逐渐放弃积极对抗,增加消极合作,促进两国在亚太地区和平共处与协商领导,关键取决于中美双方的战略博弈过程和能否达成共享主导权的战略共识。
[Abstract]:China and the United States are important powers in the Asia-Pacific region. With the narrowing of the power gap between the two countries, the competition between the two countries has intensified, and increasingly has geographical impact and strategic significance, resulting in the emergence of the dominant power competition between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. In this case, the strategy adopted by the two countries for peaceful competition is particularly critical. Neither the checks and balances of power, the normative checks and balances, the hedging strategies or the theory of coevolution are sufficient to fully explain the current interaction of the Asia-Pacific strategy between China and the United States. Under the situation that the competition between the two countries is prominent and it is difficult to reach a settlement at present, this paper attempts to put forward a strategy of rejecting superiority in order to better understand the dominant power competition between the two countries. The rejection strategy aims to weaken the competitive advantage of the opponent and slow the competitor to gain the leading power. It is mainly implemented through the means of strengthening the self-power, shaping the institutional advantage and deterring the transformation of the opponent's power, etc., which has a strong expectation of dominance and pertinence. Non-cooperative and complex characteristics. The current strategic behavior of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region shows that both countries are implementing the strategy of rejection of the best, but the results are very uncertain, which may lead to fierce institutional competition and intensified regional division in the Asia-Pacific region. It is also possible that China and the United States will gradually give up active confrontation, increase negative cooperation, and promote peaceful coexistence and negotiation leadership between the two countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The key lies in the strategic game process between China and the United States and whether or not they can reach a strategic consensus on shared leadership.
【作者单位】：外交学院国际关系研究所;
【基金】：作者主持的国家社科基金青年项目“中美亚太主导权竞争及其影响研究”(项目编号:16CGJ013)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2

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