极化、宏观政策变动与社会冲突——来自拉美的实例

发布时间：2018-07-05 10:46

本文选题：极化 + 宏观政策变动　；参考：《江西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：上世纪中期拉丁美洲大多数国家在"中等收入陷阱"中徘徊,分析其国家历史发现,严重收入分化和经济社会分化是导致"中等收入陷阱"的主要原因。不同部门和不同阶层之间的割裂和对立加剧了整个社会的极化,而收入分配不均正是极化的表现。政治极化使得绝大部分公共支出倾斜到非生产性领域,这进一步给宏观经济政策带来了巨大的压力,并且直接导致了经济增长停滞、社会冲突加剧、政权更迭频繁。本文引用一个有两个参与者的博弈模型,加入决策者的偏好极化,结合拉丁美洲的历史,证实了在收入两极化严重的社会中,公共资源过度分配和过度开发的可能性更大,大规模社会冲突爆发的可能性也更大。
[Abstract]:In the middle of the last century, most countries in Latin America lingered in the middle of the "middle-income trap". By analyzing their national history, it was found that serious income differentiation and economic and social differentiation were the main causes of the "middle-income trap". The polarization of the whole society is aggravated by the division and antagonism between different sectors and different classes, and the inequality of income distribution is the manifestation of polarization. Political polarization inclines most public expenditure to unproductive areas, which brings great pressure to macroeconomic policy, and directly leads to stagnation of economic growth, aggravation of social conflict and frequent regime change. In this paper, a game model with two participants is used to add the preference polarization of decision makers, and with the history of Latin America, it is proved that in a society with serious income polarization, the possibility of over-allocation and over-exploitation of public resources is higher. Large-scale social conflicts are also more likely to erupt.
【作者单位】：华东政法大学政治学与公共管理学院;
【基金】：华东政法大学科研项目“转型期中国社会冲突的经济制度成因和化解机制研究”(编号:15HZK026)
【分类号】：D773

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