延迟退休与养老保险制度并轨的财政及就业效应

发布时间：2018-08-03 16:33

【摘要】：本文运用养老金缺口度量模型对比分析了延迟退休和养老保险制度并轨的政策效果与就业效应,并运用中国1997-2015年间的数据对两种养老改革的效果作了模拟分析。研究表明,延迟退休无法从根源上解决养老金亏空问题,其不但会降低现存工作代在退休后的养老待遇,还会加重延迟退休到期以后若干新生代的养老负担;对新增劳动力也会产生就业挤出效应,不利于缓解劳动力市场供过于求的结构性矛盾,并增加宏观经济的不确定性。而并轨养老保险制度的效果则要好得多,无论是平衡养老财政预算,还是优化劳动力资源配置,都具有明显优势。当前优先考虑养老保险制度并轨,择期推进延迟退休的改革策略,比较切合中国国情。具体改革措施可依据不同群体的年龄结构、不同单位的市场化程度以及不同地区的经济状况相机抉择。
[Abstract]:This paper makes a comparative analysis of the policy effect and employment effect of delayed retirement and pension insurance system by using the pension gap measurement model, and simulates the effects of the two types of pension reform by using the data from 1997 to 2015 in China. The research shows that delayed retirement can not solve the problem of pension deficit from the root, it will not only reduce the pension benefits of the existing working generation after retirement, but also increase the burden of several new generation after the delay of retirement. The new labor force will also produce employment crowding out effect, which is not conducive to alleviating the structural contradiction of labor market oversupply and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. The effect of parallel pension insurance system is much better, whether it is to balance the pension budget, or to optimize the allocation of labor resources, have obvious advantages. At present, priority is given to the integration of the pension insurance system and the delayed retirement reform strategy, which is more suitable for China's national conditions. The specific reform measures can be determined according to the age structure of different groups, the degree of marketization of different units and the economic situation of different regions.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“人口流动与养老保险的可携带性研究——基于劳动力资源优化配置视角”(项目编号:17YJCZH277) 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目“延迟退休的群体偏好与策略研究”(项目编号:17NDJC213YB) 浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地应用经济学项目“生育率对家庭养老的影响研究”(项目编号:JYTyyjj201503RC) 浙江工商大学青年人才基金一般项目“人口冲击与家庭养老的福利经济学研究”(项目编号:QY1521)的资助
【分类号】：D669.6;F249.2;F842.67

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