上海合作组织权重网络模型构建及演化研究
发布时间：2018-10-25 07:05
【摘要】：上海合作组织是中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦于2001年6月15日在中国上海宣布成立的永久性政府间国际组织。上海合作组织是目前唯一在中国境内成立,并以中国城市命名的地区性国际组织。近年来兴起的社会网络分析和复杂网络理论给国际关系的量化研究提供了一种新颖的研究视角和工具。通过模型仿真实验及其数据结果的统计分析和可视化也在逐步取代基于预测的传统决策分析。本文以基于时间截面数据的纵向网络分析为基础,尝试通过构建权重网络演化模型并引入政策想定干预实验,较好地识别了预想方案的未来状况及合理性。论文的主要研究工作及创新点如下:(1)提出了一种新的上海合作组织研究视角。通过纵向网络分析与演化干预实验相结合的方法,深入研究了上海合作组织的网络结构与演化特性。通过引入权重网络建模的概念及方法,解决了传统的网络拓扑结构研究对于地区性国际组织研究存在的诸多问题和不足。同时,依据带有实际背景的模拟仿真结果,能够更为直观地帮助决策者全面评估各种预想方案的合理性。(2)提出了一种基于影响力感知的上海合作组织权重网络演化模型。构建并计算了上海合作组织成员国及干预对象的国家实力作为模型演化的初始条件。将国家实力作为有限支撑分布引入适应度模型,基于可变对象的局域世界演化模型,拟合不同国家的合作偏好。最后分别用理论解析和仿真结果验证了演化模型强度分布及其无标度特性,并确定了国家“影响力”作为干预实验的观测指标。(3)研究了想定条件下的上海合作组织权重网络演化模型干预实验。通过抽象纵向数据分析过程中发现的网络结构属性及变化趋势,确定了重要国家、偏好选择以及紧张关系三类干预实验。由于网络演化模型本身运行稳定,通过对比干预行为前后网络结构以及核心节点的指标变化,就可以确认引起系统波动的主要原因,并针对实验结果对上海合作组织发展提出策略建议。
[Abstract]:The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international organization announced by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai, China. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the only regional international organization established in China and named after a Chinese city. The social network analysis and the complex network theory developed in recent years provide a new perspective and tool for the quantitative study of international relations. The statistical analysis and visualization of the model simulation experiment and its data results are also gradually replacing the traditional decision analysis based on prediction. Based on the longitudinal network analysis based on time section data, this paper attempts to identify the future status and rationality of the proposed scheme by constructing an evolutionary model of the weighted network and introducing a policy scenario intervention experiment. The main research work and innovations are as follows: (1) A new perspective of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is proposed. Through the combination of longitudinal network analysis and evolutionary intervention experiment, the network structure and evolution characteristics of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) were studied. By introducing the concept and method of weighted network modeling, many problems and shortcomings of traditional network topology research for regional international organizations are solved. At the same time, according to the simulation results with actual background, it can help decision-makers to evaluate the rationality of various scenarios. (2) an evolutionary model of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) weight network based on impact perception is proposed. The national strength of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries and intervention objects is constructed and calculated as the initial condition for the evolution of the model. The national strength as a finite support distribution is introduced into the fitness model, and based on the local world evolution model of variable objects, the cooperation preferences of different countries are fitted. Finally, the strength distribution and scale-free characteristics of the evolutionary model are verified by theoretical analysis and simulation results. The "influence" of the state is determined as the observation index of the intervention experiment. (3) the experiment of the evolution model of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization weight network under the assumption condition is studied. By analyzing the network structure properties and changing trends in the process of abstract longitudinal data analysis, three kinds of intervention experiments, such as important countries, preference selection and tension, are determined. Because the network evolution model itself runs stably, by comparing the changes of network structure and core node indexes before and after intervention, the main causes of system fluctuation can be identified. According to the results of the experiment, some suggestions on the development of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：国防科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D814.1
[Abstract]:The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international organization announced by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai, China. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the only regional international organization established in China and named after a Chinese city. The social network analysis and the complex network theory developed in recent years provide a new perspective and tool for the quantitative study of international relations. The statistical analysis and visualization of the model simulation experiment and its data results are also gradually replacing the traditional decision analysis based on prediction. Based on the longitudinal network analysis based on time section data, this paper attempts to identify the future status and rationality of the proposed scheme by constructing an evolutionary model of the weighted network and introducing a policy scenario intervention experiment. The main research work and innovations are as follows: (1) A new perspective of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is proposed. Through the combination of longitudinal network analysis and evolutionary intervention experiment, the network structure and evolution characteristics of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) were studied. By introducing the concept and method of weighted network modeling, many problems and shortcomings of traditional network topology research for regional international organizations are solved. At the same time, according to the simulation results with actual background, it can help decision-makers to evaluate the rationality of various scenarios. (2) an evolutionary model of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) weight network based on impact perception is proposed. The national strength of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries and intervention objects is constructed and calculated as the initial condition for the evolution of the model. The national strength as a finite support distribution is introduced into the fitness model, and based on the local world evolution model of variable objects, the cooperation preferences of different countries are fitted. Finally, the strength distribution and scale-free characteristics of the evolutionary model are verified by theoretical analysis and simulation results. The "influence" of the state is determined as the observation index of the intervention experiment. (3) the experiment of the evolution model of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization weight network under the assumption condition is studied. By analyzing the network structure properties and changing trends in the process of abstract longitudinal data analysis, three kinds of intervention experiments, such as important countries, preference selection and tension, are determined. Because the network evolution model itself runs stably, by comparing the changes of network structure and core node indexes before and after intervention, the main causes of system fluctuation can be identified. According to the results of the experiment, some suggestions on the development of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：国防科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D814.1
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