适应中国老龄化现状的产业结构调整研究——基于动态面板数据模型与面板数据联立方程模型

发布时间：2018-12-06 18:13

【摘要】：文章选用30个省份2005—2015年面板数据从供给和需求两个角度分析老龄化对消费结构和劳动力城乡结构变化的动态效应。供给角度通过建立动态面板数据模型实证分析得到结论,东部地区老龄化对消费有促进作用,中、西部有抑制作用。需求角度运用面板数据联立方程模型研究发现,东部地区老龄化对劳动力城乡结构变化有推动作用,中、西部有阻碍作用。最后比较分析东、中、西部地区老龄化对消费与劳动力城乡结构效应的影响程度,并给出政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of aging on the change of consumption structure and urban and rural structure of labor force from the point of view of supply and demand, using the panel data from 2005 to 2015 in 30 provinces. Based on the empirical analysis of dynamic panel data model in the supply angle, it is concluded that the aging in the eastern region can promote consumption, while the central and western regions have the inhibitory effect. From the point of view of demand, it is found that the aging of the eastern region has a driving effect on the change of the urban and rural structure of the labor force, while the western part of the region has a hindering effect. Finally, the influence of aging on the urban-rural structure of labor force and consumption in eastern, middle and western regions is analyzed, and some policy suggestions are given.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学信息管理学院;
【基金】：江西省2016年度研究生创新专项资金项目“大数据时代下江西省人口老龄化与城镇化建设的相关性研究”(YC2016-S242)
【分类号】：D669.6;F121.3

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