南海争端中越、马、印尼三国对华制衡战略的差异性分析

发布时间：2019-03-16 18:12

【摘要】：2009年以来,越南、马来西亚和印尼对华实施的制衡战略包括三种:军事制衡、安全合作和制度制衡。各国实施制衡战略的方式存在很大差异。文章认为,反华民族主义是导致三国实施军事制衡和安全合作的关键原因。越南的反华民族主义较为强烈,具有较高的威胁认知、对抗偏好和动员能力,而马来西亚和印尼的反华民族主义较弱,由此导致它们选择了不同的军事制衡和安全合作方式。反华民族主义与领导权诉求相结合,导致了三国在制度制衡上的差异。强烈的领导权诉求使得印尼出于维护地区自主的目的主导制度制衡;而较弱的领导权诉求则使越、马两国可以在制度制衡中扮演"支持者""发起者"和"修正者"等角色。在这种情况下,反华民族主义对各国的制度制衡发挥了重要干预作用。低烈度的反华民族主义强化了印尼对制度制衡的主导,并导致马来西亚选择通过"追随"策略扮演"支持者"。强烈的反华民族主义则使得越南通过"动员"策略扮演"修正者"角色。
[Abstract]:Since 2009, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have implemented three checks and balances strategy with China: military checks and balances, security cooperation and institutional checks and balances. There are great differences in the way in which each country implements the strategy of checks and balances. The article holds that anti-China nationalism is the key reason for the implementation of military checks and balances and security cooperation among the three countries. Vietnam's anti-China nationalism is relatively strong, has a higher threat awareness, anti-preference and mobilization ability, while Malaysia and Indonesia's anti-China nationalism is weak, resulting in their choice of different military checks and balances and security cooperation. The combination of anti-China nationalism and leadership demands has led to the differences in institutional checks and balances among the three countries. Strong leadership claims allow Indonesia to dominate institutional checks and balances for the purpose of safeguarding regional autonomy, while weaker leadership claims allow Vietnam and Malaysia to play roles as "supporters", "promoters" and "revisers" in the system checks and balances. Under such circumstances, anti-China nationalism has played an important role in interfering with the institutional checks and balances of various countries. Low-intensity anti-China nationalism reinforced Indonesia's dominance of institutional checks and balances and led Malaysia to act as a "supporter" through a "follow-up" strategy. Strong anti-China nationalism has led Vietnam to act as a "fixer" through a "mobilization" strategy.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学军事教学部;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“中日钓鱼岛海上危机监测预警研究”(项目编号:16BGJ028) 中国海洋大学基本科研业务费青年项目“冷战后东南亚南海争端方‘对冲’战略比较研究”(项目编号:201713006)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D823

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