基于结构方程模型的城镇化农民可持续非农生计分析——以晋西北朔州市为例

晋西北属于国家级和省级限制开发区,其先天脆弱的自然生态系统导致土地沙漠化、水土流失以及农民贫困问题。2000年后晋西北生态脆弱区农民城镇化现象呈规模性增长趋势,通过形成“城镇化农民生计非农化—农地流转—农地规模经营—农村居民收入提高—生态恢复保护”互动关系链,可以为降低晋西北生态脆弱区土地人口压力和恢复其生态环境开辟新途径,而这条关系链存在的关键则是城镇化农民的可持续非农生计。借鉴国际上应用范围最广的可持续生计SL框架——DFID模型,选取晋西北地区大城市朔州市为实证研究对象,基于结构方程模型定量测定了脆弱性背景—生计资本—生计策略—生计结果相互之间复杂的影响机制。研究表明①脆弱性背景对生计策略产生显著的负向影响,且通过影响生计策略间接对生计结果产生负向影响。②人力资本、物质资本、金融资本均对继续留城务工的生计策略产生正向影响;生计资本中只有物质资本对就业性质有影响力。③人力资本对职业层次和娱乐生活丰富度均有显著的正向影响;社会资本对职业层次没有显示出显著影响力,但却对进城务工后的收入增加显示出正向影响力;金融资本对娱乐生活丰富度有显著正向作用力。④继续留城务工的生计策略对娱乐生活的丰富度有正向影响,就业性质则对收入增加有正向影响力。

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