天津市社会保障支出对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 08:38

本文关键词：天津市社会保障支出对经济增长影响的实证研究　出处：《天津商业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前有经济学家从社会保障的筹资模式出发，通过研究现收现付制和基金制对储蓄率和物质资本积累的影响，来考察社会保障对经济增长的作用机理。其基本结论是：现收现付的社会保障对国民储蓄具有一定的“挤出”效应，降低了国民储蓄率，妨碍了经济增长；基金制可以提高国民储蓄率，促进经济增长。说明社会保障制度对经济增长具有推动作用，而中央及地方政府对社会保障的投入是社会保障资金的重要来源，因此社会保障支出必然能够促进经济增长。本文在现有研究的基础上，通过分析社会保障支出对经济增长的作用机制，以天津市为样本建立数学模型并回归计量检验，回归结果是天津市财政社会保障支出促进了天津市经济的增长。通过进一步分析社会保障支出对经济增长影响的作用机制,社会保障支出通过影响投资、消费、人力资本积累等几个方面，进而作用于经济，并通过乘数-加速数原理对经济产生持续的良性影响。文章通过在搜集大量数据的基础上，对天津市社会保障制度以及社会保障支出的现状加以分析，总结出天津市的社会保障支出总的水平依然很低，与一些经济发达地区和城市还有很大差距。在此基础上，本文提出以下政策建议：增加社会保障投入，调整财政支出结构，，增加对农村社会保障的支出等；以期对天津市社会保障支出制度的完善贡献绵薄之力。
[Abstract]:At present, some economists study the impact of pay-as-you-go system and fund system on savings rate and material capital accumulation from the perspective of social security financing model. The basic conclusions are as follows: the pay-as-you-go social security has a certain "crowding out" effect on national savings, which reduces the national savings rate and hinders economic growth; Fund system can improve the national savings rate and promote economic growth. It shows that the social security system has a role in promoting economic growth, and the central and local governments' investment in social security is an important source of social security funds. As a result, social security spending is bound to promote economic growth. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the mechanism of social security expenditure on economic growth, taking Tianjin as a sample to establish a mathematical model and regression measurement test. The result of regression is that the financial social security expenditure of Tianjin promotes the economic growth of Tianjin. Through further analysis of the mechanism of the impact of social security expenditure on economic growth, social security expenditure affects investment and consumption. Human capital accumulation and other aspects, and then act on the economy, and through the multiplier-accelerated number principle to produce a sustained positive impact on the economy. Through the collection of a large number of data on the basis of. This paper analyzes the current situation of social security system and social security expenditure in Tianjin, and concludes that the total level of social security expenditure in Tianjin is still very low. There is still a big gap with some economically developed areas and cities. On this basis, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: increase social security input, adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure, increase the expenditure on rural social security, and so on; With a view to the social security expenditure system in Tianjin to improve the contribution of a modest force.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F812.45

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