基于系统协调发展的村镇基础设施投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 16:09

本文关键词：基于系统协调发展的村镇基础设施投资决策研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：基础设施的投资建设促进了我国新型城镇化的快速发展,对其投资效益的评价也随之受到国内学者们的关注。村镇基础设施的投资建设对提高村镇经济水平、增加村镇居民收入、推进城乡一体化等方面具有显著的影响。对村镇基础设施投资决策影响因素进行研究将有助于制定具有针对性的投资策略,同时也能为决策方法的选择和决策过程的设计提供参考依据,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。本文综合运用决策理论与方法、灰色系统理论、协调发展理论,借助于统计软件、MATLAB等软件,综合定性分析与定量分析方法,分别从宏观和微观两个层面开展了对村镇基础设施投资决策的研究。首先,本文根据村镇基础设施投资决策的影响因素以及相关理论,构建了“基础设施-村镇”复合系统,然后系统地分析了基础设施投资决策与村镇协调发展的关系,并剖析了复合系统协调发展的机制,为决策提供依据;其次,构建评价复合系统协调发展水平的评价指标体系,将村镇基础设施投资总额作为行为变量,构建基于复合系统协调发展为投资目标的村镇基础设施投资协调发展模型和差分模拟模型;再次,构建村镇基础设施项目投资决策指标体系,根据熵值法确定决策指标的权重,最后利用TOPSIS法对备选方案排序。最后,以四家子镇为例,分别对宏观和微观基础设施投资决策模型进行演示和实证分析,并给出相应的投资决策建议。通过四家子镇基础设施投资的动态协调发展模型可以发现,生产类、交通类、环境类、医疗卫生类和文体科技类基础设施水平,经济总量和效益、社会保障、资源损失和开发以及环境损失,以上因素对村镇基础设施投资总额的增加有较大的促进作用,经济结构对基础设施投资总额具有较强的抑制作用,其余因素也对基础设施投资总额有着不同程度的影响。另外,基础设施投资总额的增幅也对IESRE复合系统的协调发展有一定程度的影响。因此,政府相关部门可以根据以上关联因素的分析结果确定村镇基础设施的投资总量和投资方向。通过对村镇基础设施投资协调发展模型相关参数的解释,本文选取供水设施进行微观基础设施项目投资决策模型的实证分析,在三种备选投资方案中确定了综合评价分数最高的单村供水方案。最后本文给出了相应的投资决策建议。
[Abstract]:The investment and construction of infrastructure has promoted the rapid development of new urbanization in China, and the evaluation of its investment benefit has also been concerned by domestic scholars. The investment in infrastructure construction in villages and towns has improved the economic level of villages and towns. Increasing the income of residents in villages and towns, promoting the integration of urban and rural areas has a significant impact. The study of the impact factors of infrastructure investment decision will help to formulate targeted investment strategies. At the same time, it can also provide a reference for the selection of decision-making methods and the design of decision-making process, which has important theoretical value and practical significance. This paper synthetically applies decision-making theory and method, grey system theory, coordinated development theory. With the help of statistical software such as MATLAB, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods are synthesized, respectively from the macro and micro levels to carry out the research on the investment decision of infrastructure in villages and towns. First of all. Based on the influencing factors and related theories of the investment decision of village and town infrastructure, this paper constructs the "infrastructure-village-town" compound system, and then systematically analyzes the relationship between the infrastructure investment decision and the coordinated development of the village and town. The mechanism of the coordinated development of the composite system is analyzed to provide the basis for the decision-making. Secondly, the evaluation index system of the coordinated development level of the evaluation compound system is constructed, and the total investment in the infrastructure of villages and towns is taken as the behavior variable. The coordinated development model and differential simulation model of infrastructure investment in villages and towns are constructed based on the coordinated development of compound system. Thirdly, construct the investment decision index system of village infrastructure project, determine the weight of the decision index according to entropy method, finally use TOPSIS method to sort the alternatives. Finally, take Sijiazi town as an example. The macro and micro infrastructure investment decision models are demonstrated and analyzed, and the corresponding investment decision suggestions are given, which can be found through the dynamic coordinated development model of Sijiazizhen infrastructure investment. Production, transportation, environmental, medical and health, sports and science and technology infrastructure level, total economic volume and benefits, social security, resource loss and development, and environmental losses. The above factors promote the increase of the total investment of infrastructure in villages and towns, and the economic structure has a strong inhibitory effect on the total investment of infrastructure. The other factors also have different influence on the total infrastructure investment. In addition, the increase of the total infrastructure investment also has a certain degree of influence on the coordinated development of the IESRE complex system. The relevant government departments can determine the total investment and investment direction of rural infrastructure according to the analysis results of the above related factors. Through the interpretation of the related parameters of coordinated development model of infrastructure investment in villages and towns. This article selects the water supply facility to carry on the microscopic infrastructure project investment decision-making model empirical analysis. The single village water supply scheme with the highest comprehensive evaluation score is determined among the three alternative investment schemes. Finally, the corresponding investment decision suggestions are given in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F283

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