黑龙江省人口红利对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:28

本文选题：人口红利　切入点：经济增长　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黑龙江作为高资源禀赋的老工业基地,近年来经济增长略显颓势,低生育率与老龄化问题阻碍了其经济增长。如何从人口红利视角发挥其对经济增长的积极作用成为黑龙江省实现新东北振兴的关键路径和重要基础问题。通过对黑龙江1975-2015年人口数据的初步分析,综合现有人口红利的内涵与测算方法,将黑龙江人口红利的代理变量界定为居民消费、居民储蓄、总抚养比与劳动力投入。为量化研究人口红利各个代理变量对黑龙江经济增长的影响,基于内生经济增长理论通过索洛余值法建立各代理变量对黑龙江经济增长的理论模型,根据理论模型建立计量模型并结合黑龙江1985-2015年数据,运用Eviews软件对黑龙江平减GDP与黑龙江居民消费、居民储蓄、总抚养比与就业人口进行基于时间序列协整的最小二乘拟合。结论显示,劳动力投入、居民消费、居民储蓄均与黑龙江平减GDP呈正相关关系,三个变量对平减GDP的影响程度逐次递减,而总抚养比与黑龙江平减GDP呈负相关关系。基于人口红利对黑龙江经济增长的实证研究,黑龙江要实现新东北振兴下的经济增长,应提高劳动力资源率,完善户籍制度,合理配置教育资源;完善社会保障机制,加强大健康大医疗与智慧养老,完善养老金改革;鼓励居民消费升级,提高品牌效应与产品品质,满足老龄化消费需求;完善生育政策,鼓励二胎生育,优化人口结构。
[Abstract]:Heilongjiang, as an old industrial base with high resource endowment, has shown a slight decline in economic growth in recent years. The problem of low fertility rate and aging has hindered its economic growth. How to play its positive role in economic growth from the perspective of demographic dividend has become the key path and important foundation for Heilongjiang Province to realize the rejuvenation of the new northeast. Preliminary analysis of Heilongjiang population data from 1975 to 2015, According to the connotation and calculation method of the current population dividend, the proxy variable of Heilongjiang population dividend is defined as resident consumption, resident savings, In order to quantitatively study the influence of the agent variables of the population dividend on the economic growth of Heilongjiang province, based on the theory of endogenous economic growth, the theoretical model of each agent variable on the economic growth of Heilongjiang Province is established by Solow's residual value method. Based on the theoretical model and the data of Heilongjiang from 1985 to 2015, this paper applies Eviews software to reduce GDP and residents' consumption and savings in Heilongjiang Province. The total dependency ratio and employed population are fitted by least square method based on time series cointegration. The conclusion shows that labor input, resident consumption and resident savings are all positively correlated with GDP reduction in Heilongjiang Province. The influence degree of three variables on GDP decrease gradually, while the total dependency ratio is negatively related to the GDP of Heilongjiang Province. Based on the empirical study of the demographic dividend on Heilongjiang economic growth, Heilongjiang wants to realize the economic growth under the new northeast revitalization. We should improve the labor force resource rate, perfect the household registration system, reasonably allocate the educational resources, perfect the social security mechanism, strengthen the great health care and the intelligent old-age care, perfect the pension reform, encourage the residents to consume and upgrade, To improve the brand effect and product quality, to meet the demand of aging consumption, to perfect the fertility policy, to encourage the second child to have children, and to optimize the population structure.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;C92-05

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