基于SEM模型的河北省农民消费潜力研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 16:41

本文选题：农民消费　切入点：消费潜力　出处：《河北经贸大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济又快又好的发展需要投资、消费、出口三驾马车齐驱并进,然而拉动中国经济增长的消费却一直处于弱势地位。现今,在中国经济走缓、经济发展的矛盾和瓶颈凸显的新常态时期,激发居民的消费潜力成为经济结构转型和改革促发展政策下的关键。虽然河北省农村人口占比较大,但是近年来,农民生活水平不断提高,消费需求增加,农民的消费潜力也不断增大。研究河北省农民消费潜力问题,对促进农民消费潜力释放,拉动河北省经济的持续增长具有重要意义。基于此,本文根据国内外消费潜力研究现状的分析和总结,找出影响农民消费潜力的主要的五个因素:消费能力、消费观念、消费倾向预期、消费环境和社会保障。其次,根据这五个影响因素设计调查问卷获得河北省农民消费的现状、家庭消费情况和农民对这五个影响因素的感知情况。再次通过获得的第一手数据,分析了河北省农民的消费现状和消费热点,建立二阶验证性结构方程模型得到各影响因素的路径系数。根据结构方程的路径系数分析各影响因素对河北省农民消费潜力的影响力的大小。结果表明,社会保障对河北省农民消费潜力的影响力很小;未来两年内的收入、高品质消费、未来两年里旅游消费、网络设施对消费潜力的影响力突出。因此,我们从收入保障、农民的消费观念、网购的展开和消费热点四个方面对激发河北省农民消费潜力提出对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Rapid and good economic development requires investment, consumption, and export troika, but the consumption that drives China's economic growth has always been in a weak position. Nowadays, the Chinese economy is slowing down. In the new normal period of the contradiction and bottleneck of economic development, stimulating the consumption potential of residents has become the key under the policy of economic structure transformation and reform to promote development. Although the rural population of Hebei Province is relatively large, but in recent years, Farmers' living standards are constantly improving, consumption demand is increasing, and farmers' consumption potential is also increasing. To study the problem of farmers' consumption potential in Hebei Province, to promote the release of farmers' consumption potential, It is of great significance to stimulate the sustained economic growth of Hebei Province. Based on the analysis and summary of the current situation of consumption potential research at home and abroad, this paper finds out the main five factors that affect the consumption potential of farmers: consumption capacity, consumption concept, and so on. Consumption tendency expectation, consumption environment and social security. Secondly, according to the five influencing factors, the questionnaire is designed to obtain the current situation of farmers' consumption in Hebei Province. Household consumption and farmers' perception of these five influencing factors. Through the first-hand data obtained, this paper analyzes the current consumption situation and consumption hot spots of farmers in Hebei Province. The second order confirmatory structural equation model is established to obtain the path coefficients of the influencing factors, and the influence of the influencing factors on the consumption potential of farmers in Hebei Province is analyzed according to the path coefficients of the structural equations. The results show that, Social security has little influence on the consumption potential of farmers in Hebei Province; income, high-quality consumption in the next two years, tourism consumption in the next two years, and the influence of network facilities on consumption potential are prominent. Therefore, we start with income security. Four aspects of farmers' consumption concept, online shopping and consumption hot spots are put forward to stimulate the consumption potential of farmers in Hebei Province.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8

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