吉林省人口老龄化特征及变动趋势研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 00:07

本文选题：吉林省 + 抽样调查　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化已经成为未来我国面临的重要问题,对经济社会的发展会产生深远影响。相较于全国老龄化的发展程度,吉林省进入人口老龄化社会的时间较晚,但发展趋势非常迅速。在推进新一轮振兴东北老工业基地政策背景下,尽早的把握吉林省人口老龄化的发展趋势,了解人口老龄化的特征,做好应对老龄化趋势的准备,对吉林省未来的发展和老工业基地的顺利振兴具有重要的战略意义。本文采用2015年吉林省1%人口抽样调查的数据,同时结合中国历次人口普查资料和相关统计年鉴的资料以及部分参考文献中的数据进行分析和对比,总结吉林省人口变动过程中表现出来的地域性特点。并利用最新的数据对吉林省未来老龄化的变动趋势加以预测,以期提出符合吉林省人口变动特征及变动趋势的对策和建议。本文的研究内容和结论主要分为三个部分进行:第一部分首先梳理吉林省人口老龄化的进程,然后根据2015年吉林省1%抽样调查的数据分析并介绍吉林省人口的现状,接着根据这些数据对吉林省的人口变动特征加以分析;第二部分根据2015年吉林省1%抽样调查的数据及部分第六次人口普查的数据对吉林省从2015年到2050年的人口变化趋势进行预测;第三部分根据总结出来的特征和未来的变化趋势给出对策和建议。其中,第一部分在对吉林省人口变动的特征进行分析时,更多的运用吉林省历次人口普查和统计年鉴的数据与最新的数据进行对比,详细介绍目前吉林省老年人口的规模、性别年龄结构、健康自评情况、受教育程度、地域分布特征以及参加社会保障的情况,总结吉林省人口老龄化变动的地域性特征,以期针对吉林省的未来人口变动提出应对策略。第二部分将结合2015年吉林省1%抽样调查的数据,利用Spectrum人口预测软件进行针对吉林省未来的人口变动趋势的预测,判断吉林省未来的人口规模、人口性别年龄结构,推测人口老龄化将对吉林省经济社会的发展造成的影响,以期达到“未雨绸缪”的目的,提出应对未来人口老龄化将带来的消极影响的对策。本文的最后,提出符合吉林省人口变动特征的,并且迎合吉林省未来人口老龄化变动趋势的对策和建议,并总结阐述本文的研究结论。在帮助认识吉林省未来人口变动趋势的同时,发现人口变动带来的问题,以期规避未来人口结构变动造成的经济社会风险,促进人口发展和经济社会发展的协调共荣。
[Abstract]:Population aging has become an important issue in the future, which will have a profound impact on the economic and social development.Compared with the development of national aging, Jilin Province entered the aging society later, but the development trend is very rapid.In the context of the policy of promoting a new round of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, we should grasp the development trend of the aging population in Jilin Province as soon as possible, understand the characteristics of the aging population, and be prepared to cope with the trend of aging.It is of great strategic significance for the future development of Jilin Province and the smooth revitalization of the old industrial base.This paper uses the data of 1% population sample survey of Jilin Province in 2015, and analyzes and compares the data from the past population censuses in China, the relevant statistical yearbooks and some references.This paper summarizes the regional characteristics in the process of population change in Jilin Province.The latest data are used to predict the trend of future aging in Jilin Province, in order to put forward some countermeasures and suggestions in line with the characteristics and trend of population change in Jilin Province.The research contents and conclusions of this paper are divided into three parts: the first part is to sort out the process of population aging in Jilin Province, and then to analyze and introduce the present situation of Jilin Province population according to the data of 1% sample survey in Jilin Province in 2015.Then, according to these data, the characteristics of population change in Jilin Province are analyzed.The second part forecasts the population change trend of Jilin province from 2015 to 2050 according to the data of 1% sample survey of Jilin province in 2015 and the data of the sixth census of Jilin province.The third part gives the countermeasures and suggestions according to the characteristics and future trends.In the first part, when analyzing the characteristics of population change in Jilin Province, more and more comparisons are made between the data of the previous population censuses and statistical yearbooks of Jilin Province and the latest data to introduce in detail the current scale of the elderly population in Jilin Province.Gender and age structure, health self-assessment, education level, geographical distribution and participation in social security are summarized, and the regional characteristics of population aging in Jilin Province are summarized.With a view to the future population changes in Jilin Province to put forward countermeasures.The second part will combine the data of 1% sample survey of Jilin Province in 2015, use Spectrum population forecast software to forecast the future population change trend of Jilin Province, judge the future population scale, population sex age structure of Jilin Province.This paper speculated on the impact of population aging on the economic and social development of Jilin Province, in order to achieve the goal of "making good plans ahead of time" and put forward countermeasures to deal with the negative effects of future population aging.At the end of this paper, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions which accord with the characteristics of population change in Jilin Province and cater to the future trend of population aging in Jilin Province, and summarizes and expounds the research conclusions of this paper.In order to avoid the economic and social risks caused by the population structure change in the future and promote the coordination of population development and economic and social development, this paper finds out the problems brought about by population change in Jilin province while helping to understand the trend of population change in the future.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24

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