城镇化对城乡居民收入差距的动态影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 10:09

本文选题：城镇化 + 社会保障支出　；参考：《青岛理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1978年开始,我国经济取得了长足发展,2010年GDP总量赶超日本,一举变成世界第二大经济体,2014年我国GDP总量超过十万亿美元,而当时日本还不到五万亿美元,是日本的两倍之多,2015年至2016年前两个季度这种差距继续扩大。与此同时,我国GDP增速逐步回落,城乡居民生活水平虽有显著提高,但城乡居民之间的收入差距却未曾减小。随着国家城镇化进程的加快,居民收入虽得到了大幅度的提升,但城乡之间的收入差距也再次被拉大,2006年城乡实际收入比大于3:1,此后差距从未得到有效改善。从长远来看,农村与城镇居民间收入差距过大,不但会不利于社会长治久安,更会给经济的健康可持续性带来严重后果。在中国经济进入换挡、减速的新常态以及世界经济“大过渡”时期,探究城镇化水平对我国城乡居民之间的收入差距的动态影响,对实现我国农村与城镇经济协调发展有着十分重要的指导意义。本文以已有理论为基础,运用城镇化水平、社会保障支出水平、农村与城镇居民间收入差距等有关数据,将理论分析和实证分析相结合,以城镇化水平为核心变量,社会保障支出水平为控制变量,在引入城镇化水平与社会保障支出水平交叉项的基础上,运用VAR、VEC模型探究我国城镇化水平对城乡居民间收入差距的动态影响。实证结果表明,城镇化水平、社会保障支出水平都是影响我国城乡之间收入差距的重要因素,而且它们都有减小农村与城镇居民间收入差距的作用,相比之下,前者对减小农村与城镇居民之间收入差距效果更大,但它们的联合效应却有扩大这种差距的效应,这可能与我国目前城镇化建设进程与社会保障支出体制发展不协调有关。同时还分析了推动城镇化进程的两大动力——产业结构、财政支出,对城镇化水平的贡献度,从而通过城镇化这一传导机制来减小我国城乡居民之间的收入差距。最后根据研究结果提出政府可通过加快我国城镇化进程,建立覆盖全社会的社会保障体系,来减小我国城乡居民之间的收入差距。同时可从深化产业结构、优化财政支出结构、建立新型户籍制度三方面来推进我国城镇化高质量发展;从完善最低生活保障制度、新型养老保险制度、新型医疗制度等方面来建立覆盖全国的现代化社会保障体系。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, China's economy has made great progress. In 2010, China's total GDP overtook Japan to become the second largest economy in the world. In 2014, the total GDP of our country exceeded 10 trillion US dollars, compared with less than 5 trillion US dollars in Japan at that time. This gap continues to widen between 2015 and the first two quarters of 2016. At the same time, the growth rate of GDP in China has gradually decreased, although the living standard of urban and rural residents has been improved significantly, the income gap between urban and rural residents has not been reduced. With the acceleration of the national urbanization process, although the income of the residents has been greatly increased, the income gap between urban and rural areas has been widened again. In 2006, the actual urban-rural income ratio was more than 3: 1, and the gap has never been effectively improved since then. In the long run, if the income gap between rural and urban residents is too large, it will not only be harmful to the long-term stability of the society, but also bring serious consequences to the health sustainability of the economy. In the period of shift and deceleration of Chinese economy and the "great transition" of the world economy, this paper explores the dynamic influence of urbanization level on the income gap between urban and rural residents in China. It has a very important guiding significance to realize the coordinated development of rural and urban economy in our country. Based on the existing theories, this paper combines the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis, using the relevant data, such as urbanization level, social security expenditure level, income gap between rural and urban residents, and taking urbanization level as the core variable. The level of social security expenditure is a control variable. On the basis of introducing the intersection of urbanization level and social security expenditure level, the dynamic influence of urbanization level on the income gap between urban and rural residents in China is explored by using VARN VEC model. The empirical results show that the urbanization level and the level of social security expenditure are the important factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural areas in China, and they all play a role in reducing the income gap between rural and urban residents. The former has a greater effect on reducing the income gap between rural and urban residents, but their combined effect has the effect of enlarging the gap, which may be related to the incoordination between the process of urbanization construction and the development of social security expenditure system. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the contribution of industrial structure, financial expenditure and urbanization to the urbanization process, so as to reduce the income gap between urban and rural residents through the transmission mechanism of urbanization. Finally, it is suggested that the government can reduce the income gap between urban and rural residents by speeding up the process of urbanization and establishing a social security system covering the whole society. At the same time, we can promote the high-quality development of urbanization in China from three aspects: deepening the industrial structure, optimizing the financial expenditure structure, establishing a new household registration system, and improving the minimum living security system, the new old-age insurance system, New medical system and other aspects to establish a nationwide modern social security system.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.21;F124.7

【参考文献】