建筑业人工成本主要影响因素识别及预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 03:27

本文选题：建筑业 + 人工成本　；参考：《重庆大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：长期以来,我国典型的“二元经济”结构为工业化和城镇化建设提供了富足的劳动力资源。建筑业作为我国的传统行业和国民经济的支柱产业,大规模的基础设施建设和民生工程建设吸纳了大量的农村转移劳动力,也正是“人口红利”创造的廉价劳务输出,成就了我国建筑业在海外市场的拓展之路。然而,受劳动人口绝对数量下降和劳动力结构性失衡的影响,最早源于制造业的“民工荒”、“招工难”现象已波及建筑业:各个工种价格均出现不同程度的上涨,人工成本占建安工程费用的比例逐年攀升,这对建筑企业以材料费、机械设备费为重点的传统管理模式提出重大挑战,而进行人工成本主要影响因素识别、探索人工成本预测方法是开展人工成本管控的基础。首先,论文分别基于人力资源管理和企业会计的视角梳理了人工成本的概念及构成要素,从建筑业从业人员分类入手清晰地界定了建筑业人工成本的构成,明确本文研究的重点,并对具有代表性的人工成本理论加以剖析。随后,结合建筑业劳动力供求现状,通过建筑业城镇职工和建筑工种工资性收入发展趋势的分析凸显建筑行业人工成本现状,并从劳动力基本素质、工资水平、劳动条件及社会保障三个方面设计调查问卷挖掘建筑业劳动力供需的深层析矛盾以及人工成本上涨的深层次原因。之后,通过结构化访谈并结合建筑业人工成本的现状分析,将文献识别出的51项影响指标进行梳理,随后,采用Likert量表法进行问卷设计,借助SPSS软件对问卷回收数据进行因子分析,得到工程特征因素、宏观经济因素、行业因素、企业因素、建造成本因素、劳动者因素六项主要影响因素,并按照影响因素的重要性指数进行排序,最终确定劳动力供需结构、居民消费水平、建筑业总产值、建筑企业数量以及建筑业从业人员数量对建筑业人工成本的影响较大。最后,在借鉴人工成本预测现有方法的基础上,结合灰色理论中灰色关联度模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的优势与不足,融合回归分析中基于事物的因果关系进行逻辑推理的本质,构建了人工成本灰色组合预测模型,并通过实证研究证明其预测结果相对于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型具有较高的精度。论文通过问卷调查和实地调研了解现实情况,在此基础上开展理论研究,使结论更具说服力。论文的研究结果一方面可以加强建筑企业对人工成本的重视,另一方面,可以对人工成本的管控工作提供基础支撑。
[Abstract]:For a long time, China's typical "dual economy" structure has provided abundant labor resources for industrialization and urbanization. As the traditional industry of our country and the pillar industry of the national economy, the large-scale infrastructure construction and the construction of people's livelihood project have absorbed a large amount of rural migrant labor force, which is also the cheap labor export created by the "demographic dividend". Has achieved our country construction industry to expand the road in the overseas market. However, as a result of the decline in the absolute number of workers and the structural imbalance in the labour force, the "shortage of workers" in the manufacturing sector, the phenomenon of "recruitment difficulties", has spread to the construction industry: prices of all types of jobs have risen to varying degrees. The proportion of labor cost to Jianan project cost is rising year by year, which brings great challenge to the traditional management mode of construction enterprise, which focuses on material cost and machinery and equipment cost, while the main influencing factors of labor cost are identified. To explore the method of labor cost prediction is the basis of labor cost control. First of all, based on the human resource management and enterprise accounting perspective, the paper combs the concept and elements of labor cost, and clearly defines the composition of construction labor cost from the classification of construction workers. The emphasis of this paper is clarified, and the representative labor cost theory is analyzed. Then, according to the current situation of labor supply and demand in the construction industry, through the analysis of the development trend of the income of urban workers and construction workers in the construction industry, it highlights the current situation of labor costs in the construction industry, and from the basic quality of labor force, wage level, Three aspects of labor conditions and social security design questionnaire to dig out the construction industry labor supply and demand deep analysis of contradictions and the deep-seated reasons for the rise of labor costs. Then, through structured interviews and analysis of the current situation of labor costs in construction industry, 51 impact indicators identified by the literature were sorted out. Then, the questionnaire was designed by using Likert scale method. With the help of SPSS software, the factors of engineering characteristics, macroeconomic factors, industry factors, enterprise factors, construction cost factors and laborer factors are obtained by factor analysis of the data collected from the questionnaire. Finally, the structure of labor supply and demand, the level of resident consumption, the total output value of construction industry, the number of construction enterprises and the number of employees in construction industry have great influence on the labor cost of construction industry. Finally, based on the existing methods of labor cost prediction, combining the advantages and disadvantages of grey correlation degree model and grey GM1 / 1) prediction model in grey theory, the essence of logical reasoning based on the causal relationship of things in regression analysis is fused. The grey combination forecasting model of labor cost is constructed, and its prediction result is proved to be more accurate than that of the grey GM1 / 1) model. On the basis of questionnaire investigation and field investigation, the paper carries out theoretical research to make the conclusion more convincing. On the one hand, the research results of the paper can strengthen the construction enterprises to pay attention to the labor cost, on the other hand, it can provide the basic support to the management and control of the labor cost.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.92;F406.72

【参考文献】