中国农村居民储蓄率的不平等及成因研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 07:46

本文选题：储蓄率不平等 + CFPS　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：相关统计数据显示,近几年中国经济下行压力增大,曾经支撑中国经济持续高速增长的投资、出口疲软,对经济的带动作用逐渐减弱。与此同时,消费对经济增长的贡献度上升,有可能成为进一步促进经济增长的新的动力。而消费与储蓄之间又存在着此消彼长的关系。学界普遍认为,中国国民较高的储蓄率是阻碍消费拉动经济增长的重要障碍,但实际上居民储蓄率较高只是整体而言,它还存在着地区和个体的不平等。根据相关数据测算的居民储蓄基尼系数说明,居民储蓄率有高有低,差别较大。另外,影响储蓄高低的因素以及各个因素所起到的作用也不尽相同。这些差别导致政策的边际效应也有区别。所以,对居民的储蓄问题不应该一概而论,要分析形成高低储蓄不平等的具体原因、制定有针对性的政策以改善居民储蓄状况,增加居民消费。目前,已有研究涉及到居民储蓄不平等的问题,但关于农村居民储蓄率不平等的研究则比较少见。基于以上背景,本文在梳理了收入、社会网络、人口因素、财富水平和社会保障等与储蓄相关文献的基础上,选取相关指标变量并结合相关的储蓄理论,使用分位数回归、分位差异检验等计量方法和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的微观数据对农村居民储蓄率的不平等进行实证分析。最后,根据实证研究的相关结论,选取可以施加政策影响的因素,提供一些参考建议。本文实证结果显示,中国农村居民家庭储蓄率不平等的形成原因是多方面的。具体来讲,家庭年收入、耕地面积、现金及存款、未成年孩子数等因素对农村居民储蓄率不平等产生显著负向影响,能够在一定程度上缩小家庭的储蓄率差距;家庭规模、家庭的人情支出和医疗支出则对农村居民家庭的储蓄率不平等产生正向影响,会扩大农村居民储蓄率差距;由新型农村养老保险和新型农村合作医疗构成的农村社会保障体系对农村居民储蓄率不平等没有产生显著性影响。
[Abstract]:Statistics show that the downward pressure on China's economy has increased in recent years, with investment that has sustained rapid growth in the country's economy, and weak exports, which have gradually weakened its role in driving the economy. Meanwhile, the rising contribution of consumption to economic growth is likely to become a new driving force for further economic growth. And there is a relationship between consumption and savings. The academic circles generally think that the high saving rate of Chinese people is an important obstacle to the consumption-driven economic growth, but in fact, the higher saving rate of the residents is only overall, and it also has regional and individual inequality. According to the relevant data, the Gini coefficient of household savings shows that the savings rate of residents is higher and lower, and the difference is great. In addition, the factors affecting savings and the role of each factor are different. These differences lead to differences in the marginal effects of policies. Therefore, we should not generalize the problem of residents' savings, we should analyze the specific reasons for the inequality of savings between high and low, and formulate targeted policies to improve the situation of residents' savings and increase residents' consumption. At present, there are some researches on the inequality of residents' savings, but there are few researches on the inequality of rural residents' savings rate. Based on the above background, this paper combs the literature related to savings, such as income, social network, population factors, wealth level and social security, selects relevant index variables and combines relevant savings theory, and uses quantile regression. The empirical analysis of the inequality of savings rate of rural residents is carried out by means of quantile difference test and microcosmic data of CFPS-based household tracking survey in China. Finally, according to the relevant conclusions of the empirical study, we select the factors that can exert policy influence, and provide some reference suggestions. The empirical results show that there are many reasons for the inequality of household savings rate in rural China. Specifically, factors such as annual household income, cultivated land area, cash and savings, and the number of underage children have a significant negative impact on the inequality of the savings rate of rural residents, which can to some extent narrow the gap in household savings rate. The personal expenditure and medical expenditure have a positive impact on the inequality of savings rate of rural households, which will widen the gap between the savings rate of rural residents; The rural social security system composed of the new rural old-age insurance and the new rural cooperative medical system has no significant effect on the inequality of rural residents' savings rate.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.22;F323.8

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