社会保障对上海市居民消费影响

发布时间：2018-06-26 02:22

本文选题：居民消费 + 社会保障　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：转变经济发展方式,促进上海市经济结构转型,是今后一阶段上海市经济发展所面临的首要问题,这就需要不断提升居民消费,以此来推动上海市经济平稳增长。要提升居民消费,就需要改善居民对不确定性的预期,减少预防性储蓄,而这就离不开社会保障支出的投入。本文主要分析社会保障对上海市居民消费影响,首先回顾了国内外相关文献,并以经典消费模型为基础,在引入社会保障这一变量之后,从理论上对社会保障以及消费进行分析；其次,根据上海市1978—2011年的居民消费以及社会保障支出等数据,针对不同指标加以分析,并对比国外发达国家已有数据,得出上海市社会保障支出水平过低,居民消费整体处于下降的趋势,并存在被政府消费挤占的现象等结论；最后通过局部均衡以及最优化模型,引入上海市现有数据,计算出上海市最优储蓄率,并利用协整检验等实证分析的方法,得出居民消费与社会保障支出存在长期稳定关系,收入不确定性对居民消费存在负面影响,上海市居民受流动性约束的比例过高,而近些年的数据则有所下降。根据上海市社会保障现状及相关实证分析结果,结合国外发达国家相关社会保障发展经验,本文最终提出了促进居民消费的若干政策与建议,主要包括加大社会保障支出投入、建立多层次的社会保障体系、降低社会保障缴费率、加快金融体制改革等。
[Abstract]:Changing the mode of economic development and promoting the transformation of Shanghai's economic structure are the most important problems facing Shanghai's economic development in the next stage. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously raise residents' consumption in order to promote the steady growth of Shanghai's economy. To increase household consumption, we need to improve residents' expectations of uncertainty and reduce precautionary savings, which cannot be separated from social security spending. This paper mainly analyzes the impact of social security on the consumption of Shanghai residents. Firstly, it reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad, and based on the classical consumption model, after introducing the social security variable, Secondly, according to the data of residents' consumption and social security expenditure in Shanghai from 1978 to 2011, this paper analyzes different indicators, and compares the existing data of developed countries. It is concluded that the level of social security expenditure in Shanghai is too low, the overall consumption of residents is in a downward trend, and there is a phenomenon of being overrun by government consumption. Finally, through the local equilibrium and optimization model, the existing data of Shanghai are introduced. By calculating the optimal savings rate in Shanghai and using empirical analysis methods such as cointegration test, it is concluded that there is a long-term stable relationship between residents' consumption and social security expenditure, and income uncertainty has a negative impact on residents' consumption. The proportion of Shanghai residents who are constrained by liquidity is too high, and data has fallen in recent years. According to the current situation of social security in Shanghai and the relevant empirical analysis results, combined with the relevant social security development experience of foreign developed countries, this paper finally puts forward some policies and suggestions to promote the consumption of residents, mainly including increasing the social security expenditure. Establish a multi-level social security system, reduce social security contribution rates, and speed up the reform of the financial system.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;D632.1

【参考文献】