中国家庭消费与生育选择的关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 02:41

本文选题：家庭消费 + 生育选择　；参考：《东北财经大学学报》2016年05期

【摘要】：家庭消费会直接影响生育选择,从消费角度探索提高生育水平的路径具有一定的现实意义。本文借鉴Cass-Koopmans模型,构建家庭消费与生育选择的关系模型,利用中国1978—2014年数据进行模型估计和验证,结果发现:在消费和资本差异较大的情况下,消费水平的提高会带来生育率提高,而人均资本水平的提高则会带来生育率下降;生育率与人均资本、生育率与消费水平的关系均呈现倒U型曲线,消费水平的拐点数值比人均资本更大,意味着生育补贴和生育保险等社会保障可以抑制消费水平拐点的发生,在一定程度上会提高当前生育率。调整生育意愿,提高生育率,可以通过有计划分步地改革生育保险制度、健全和统一养老社会保险制度和保障妇女劳动参与等措施来实现。
[Abstract]:Family consumption will directly affect fertility choice. It is of practical significance to explore ways to improve fertility level from the perspective of consumption. Using Cass-Koopmans model for reference, this paper constructs a relationship model between family consumption and reproductive choice, and uses Chinese data from 1978 to 2014 to estimate and verify the model. The results show that: in the case of large differences in consumption and capital, The increase of consumption level will lead to the increase of fertility rate, while the increase of per capita capital level will bring about the decline of fertility rate, and the relationship between fertility and capital per capita, fertility and consumption level will all show an inverted U-shaped curve. The inflection point of consumption level is larger than per capita capital which means that social security such as birth allowance and birth insurance can restrain the inflection point of consumption level and to some extent will increase the current fertility rate. Adjusting the willingness to bear and raising the fertility rate can be realized through the planned reform of the birth insurance system, the improvement and unification of the old-age social insurance system and the protection of women's participation in labor.
【作者单位】：内蒙古大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“蒙古族生育转变及对其生计选择的作用机理研究”(71303102) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金联合资助课题“民族地区加快转变经济发展方式与改善民生关系研究:以内蒙古为例”(20131501120008) 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目“‘放开二胎’政策下蒙汉居民生育意愿调整和生育行为比较研究”(2015MS0710)
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

【相似文献】