贵州省社会发展水平评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 12:51

【摘要】：20世纪以来,国家经济高速发展,但发展的同时很多社会问题逐渐暴露出来,如:经济发展了,却带来许多产品生产过剩的问题;人口平均寿命提高了,却又伴随着出现老龄人口的社会保障问题;经济发展的速度加快了,竞争激烈了,社会分配的不公平问题也出现了;工业发展的同时,随着工业工程中产生的废水、废气的排放,环境问题就接踵而来了…等等。这些问题说明了经济的发展不能代表一个国家或地区发展的综合水平,是否真正的健康的发展。社会发展水平的说法就由此被提出,众多学者着手开始这方面的研究。如何定义社会发展的内涵,采用什么评价方法去评价一个国家或地区的社会发展水平,成为了当前理论和实践界十分关注的问题。关于社会发展水平的综合评价,目前还没有国际公认的体系和方法,针对社会发展的丰富含义,统计手段总是有限的,现实中不存在绝对完美的测度和评价方法,我们只能根据研究目的对社会发展指标和评价方法的研究进行再思考、再认识,正确地把握社会发展的科学内涵和原则,才能进一步探讨与其相适应的科学的统计方法,才能尽可能客观地描述社会发展的状况。本文运用理论研究与实证研究相结合的方式评价贵州省社会发展水平。从理论上分析社会发展的内涵、指标选取及筛选方法、综合评价方法,最后建立了四层次指标体系模型。文中基于传统的统计方法的局限性,站在神经网络前沿的方向,选取了具有非线性拟合功能的GRNN神经网络方法来进行评价,提出PCA-GRNN神经网络方法。从实证研究上,首先利用MIV算法对贵州省社会发展水平指标体系的经济发展、社会进步、生态环境、资源产消四个子系统的指标分别进行筛选,然后利用熵权法、敏感权法分别逐层进行赋权,通过比较综合指数法、TOPSIS法、及P=W*R几种综合评价结果的偏差度大小,本文采用偏差度最小的P=W*R模型进行综合赋值,得到了贵州省从1996—2013年社会发展综合水平综合值,分析其18年贵州省社会发展水平趋势变化情况。采用同样的方法对西南地区几个省市分别进行指标的筛选、提取各省共同保留下来的指标进行综合评价,对西南地区各省市(西藏除外)的社会发展综合水平进行比较和差异性分析,分析了四省在经济发展、社会进步、生态环境各系统上每年综合水平变化率的情况,动态的分析四省今后的发展趋势,最后结合特色指标着重的分析了贵州省经济发展、社会进步、生态环境各系统动态变化趋势,展现了贵州未来发展前景,提出相应了协助措施及其政策性建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 20th century, the national economy has developed at a high speed, but at the same time many social problems have been gradually exposed. For example, the economic development has brought about the problem of overproduction of many products, and the average life expectancy of the population has increased. But with the emergence of the problem of social security for the elderly population; the speed of economic development has accelerated, the competition has become fierce, and the problem of unfair social distribution has also emerged; while the industrial development has been accompanied by the waste water produced in industrial engineering, Exhaust emissions, environmental problems followed by. Wait These problems show that the economic development can not represent the comprehensive level of development of a country or region, whether the real healthy development. The theory of the level of social development was put forward, and many scholars began to study this aspect. How to define the connotation of social development and what evaluation method should be adopted to evaluate the social development level of a country or region has become a problem of great concern in the field of theory and practice at present. At present, there are no internationally recognized systems and methods for the comprehensive evaluation of the level of social development. In view of the rich meaning of social development, statistical means are always limited, and there is no absolute perfect measurement and evaluation method in reality. Only by rethinking, rethinking and correctly grasping the scientific connotations and principles of social development can we further explore scientific statistical methods suitable for social development. In order to describe the situation of social development as objectively as possible. This paper evaluates the level of social development in Guizhou Province by combining theoretical research with empirical research. In this paper, the connotation of social development, the selection and selection of indicators, and the comprehensive evaluation method are analyzed theoretically. Finally, a four-level index system model is established. Based on the limitation of the traditional statistical method, this paper selects the GRNN neural network method with nonlinear fitting function to evaluate, and puts forward the PCA-GRNN neural network method. In the empirical research, firstly, the index of the index system of the level of social development in Guizhou Province is screened by MIV algorithm, and the indexes of the four subsystems, namely, economic development, social progress, ecological environment, resource production and consumption, are screened respectively, and then the entropy weight method is used. The sensitive weight method is weighted layer by layer. By comparing the synthetic index method with the TOPSIS method and the degree of deviation of several kinds of comprehensive evaluation results of P=W*R, this paper adopts the P=W*R model with the minimum deviation degree to assign the value synthetically. The comprehensive values of social development level in Guizhou Province from 1996 to 2013 are obtained and the trend of social development level in Guizhou Province during the past 18 years is analyzed. By using the same method, several provinces and cities in southwest China were selected for index selection, and the indexes retained by each province were extracted for comprehensive evaluation. The comprehensive level of social development in provinces and cities in southwest China (except Tibet) is compared and the differences are analyzed, and the annual comprehensive level change rates of the four provinces in economic development, social progress and ecological environment systems are analyzed. Dynamic analysis of the four provinces in the future development trends, finally combined with the characteristics of the indicators focused on the analysis of Guizhou's economic development, social progress, ecological environment system dynamic trends, showing the future development prospects of Guizhou. The corresponding assistance measures and their policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：贵州民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TP183;D67

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