中国人口流动的社会福利效应分析
发布时间：2018-08-27 05:46
【摘要】：人口流动是社会进步和经济发展的重要推动力,人口跨地区流动,既有利于整个社会资源的合理配置,也有利于促进流入地的经济发展。人口流动也是推动社会制度不断改革的重要推动力。随着人口流动的常态化,与之相关的管理制度也不断适应和调整,人口流动的累计效应推动相关制度改革的深入。社会福利制度作为与每个人息息相关的制度,在人口流动的过程中,不断改革和完善,考察人口流动对我国福利制度的影响,进而对社会福利水平的推动,对于我国迈向全面小康社会具有重要的现实意义。人口流动与社会福利之间关系的研究涉及人口学、福利经济学和新制度经济学等相关学科。目前已有的研究,大多以人口流动为出发点,主要内容涉及人口流动与经济增长,人口流动与社会保障制度,人口流动与公共服务提供机制,研究的重点在探讨流动人口的经济增长效应,如何保障流动人口的教育、医疗、养老等问题,以及如何优化财政支出来解决因人口流动带来的地区和城乡差距扩大。对人口流动对社会福利制度的影响研究较少,对由此带来的社会福利水平的变动更是鲜有涉及。人口流动和制度变革之间存在着互动关系,阶段性的制度变化短期内能够引发人口的集中性流动,人口的长期流动也会推动社会制度的适应性改革。同时,人口流动和社会福利制度之间存在双向互动关系,但本文在逻辑上选取其中的一个单向驱动:人口流动社会福利制度变动社会总体福利水平变化,作为研究方向,重点分析由人口流动驱动的社会福利制度演变,进而评估人口流动对于整体社会福利水平的影响。具体实施上,本文在梳理国内外对于人口流动与社会福利效应相关研究成果的基础上,引出本文选题。之后选取人口学、福利经济学和新制度经济学中可作为研究支撑的相关理论,进行归纳总结和评述,在此基础上展开本文的后续研究,具体研究路径和重点内容如下:首先,对人口流动与社会福利变化之间的关联性进行经验分析。建国以来,我国人口流动经历了由经济驱动到政治驱动最终由市场驱动的过程。从国家层面来看,国家利益是人口流动的原始驱动力,从流动人口自身来看,除国家强制性的迁移外,自由流动状态下,人们对更高社会福利的追求是人口流动的主因。人口流动的过程也推动了社会福利制度的改革与完善,与四次人口流动大潮相交织,我国的社会福利制度也经历了初创时期、发展时期、挫折与恢复时期、转型时期。尤其是1984年以来的转型时期,我国对传统社会福利制度进行改革,改变了过去由国家负担全部社会福利的做法,形成了由国家、集体、个人共担社会福利的局面。这一时期,流动人口的社会福利制度建设也从无到有,经历了从制度缺位到制度建构并全面实施的历程。排除人为的强制性的人口迁移,观察1978年改革开放以来,在市场经济下自由的人口流动过程,可以发现我国人口从农村流向城市,从中西部欠发达地区流向东部发达地区的过程中,不仅自身的收入水平和福利状况有所改善,对流入地整体的经济发展也有带动作用。但同时,人口流动也造成了流出地人口流失,劳动力不足,流入地资源承载压力上升,基础设施建设滞后等问题,对社会福利水平而言,人口流动既有正效应,也有负效应。其次,深入分析阿马蒂亚·森“可行能力方法”框架下的“功能”和“能力”空间的社会福利函数,并在比较分析人类社会发展指数(hdi)、hdi扩充指标体系的基础上,本着科学性、可操作性、可靠性、动态性和相对独立性的原则,首先采用系统分析法,根据社会福利所涉及的相关指标,不受任何条件的限制,尽可能全面地一一列出,然后运用理论分析法,从“功能”和“能力”的视角,对社会福利的内涵、特征和发展潜力进行分析综合,并参考国内外相关研究中各指标的采用频度,选出其中具有稳定性和数据连续性的指标。由此构建了本文的社会福利水平评价指标体系。该指标体系包含“功能”和“能力”两个维度,涵盖收入水平、消费水平、住房状况、健康状况、教育程度、社会保障、旅游休闲和自然环境8大类别34个指标,是对我国目前的社会福利水平进行系统、科学评价的有益探索。第三,对我国1978年以来的社会福利水平进行模糊逻辑测算。在测算方法上,引入了模糊数学评价方法,主要过程包括:模式识别与模糊化、模糊推理系统的建立、模糊规则与模糊推理、模糊暗示与解模糊化。实证分析中,采用时间序列数据测算我国1978年以来的社会福利水平,结果显示:1978年以来,我国社会福利水平在不同阶段的提升速度不尽相同,并且过程中多有反复。80年代初期,受改革开放的推动,我国的经济和社会发展中很多原有体制的束缚被解除,社会福利水平出现了一次较快增长,但80年代中后期,整体社会福利水平并没有延续之前高增长的态势,80年代末期甚至出现了社会福利水平下降,并且一直持续到20世纪90年代。之后,受我国社会主义市场经济体制确立的推动,1996年开始我国社会福利水平逐年攀升,1996-2003年我国社会福利水平从0.4402提升到0.6122,增幅高达39.07%。2003年之后,受到国内投资加快、居民家庭消费不振以及自然生态环境破坏的影响,我国整体社会福利水平增速有所放缓。但2008年金融危机之后,随着我国经济发展的恢复、国家扩大内需政策的实施,以及对社会保障、民生工程和生态环保的重视,我国的社会福利水平增长速度有所提高,2014年达到改革开放以来的最高水平,并显示出较强的后续增长潜力。第四,对我国改革开放以来人口流动与社会福利水平的关联性进行了实证分析。将“人口流动率”、“乡-城人口流动率”变量引入社会福利效应分析,采用时变参数的状态空间模型分析人口流动与社会福利水平变动的内在联系,评估我国经济社会发展的不同阶段人口流动对社会福利水平的影响,并重点分析了“乡-城人口流动”对社会福利水平的影响。相关性检验表明:全国人口流动率、控制变量与社会福利水平之间存在两个“协整关系”,即全国人口流动率、控制变量与社会福利水平之间存在长期关系;“乡-城人口流动率”、控制变量与社会福利水平之间存在一个“协整关系”,即“乡-城人口流动率”、控制变量与社会福利水平之间也存在长期关系。从趋势上看:1978年以来,我国整体人口流动对社会福利水平的作用呈现出阶段性特征,经历了短期内迅速上升之后明显下滑,在小幅反弹及平稳调整后又迅速上升,最后在一个较高水平上趋于稳定的过程。同期,“乡-城人口流动”对社会福利水平的作用趋势与此基本类似,但“乡-城人口流动”对社会福利水平的影响比全国人口流动对社会福利水平的影响更为显著。因此,提高由农村到城市的流动人口社会福利水平对提升我国社会整体福利水平有更加明显的效果。最后本文结合经验分析和实证分析的结论,以本轮人口流动大潮的特点为考量,在现有社会福利制度变迁路径的基础上,明确未来改革方向,提出相应的社会福利制度建设的政策建议:通过建立适合人口流动的户籍管理制度、社会保障机制、随迁子女教育制度,创新社区管理模式,让流动人口安居乐业,促进经济发展,提高整体的社会福利水平。本研究中可能实现以下三方面的创新:第一,选题创新。从目前的文献看,对于人口流动与社会福利的研究,范围基本局限在人口流动与狭义的社会保障制度之间关系的研究或者人口流动与收入水平或经济发展水平的研究,本文在选题上根据十八大全面建设小康社会的指导思想,适应新形势下的要求,将选题定位在更高层面的社会福利范畴,是对现有研究的扩充和提高。第二,指标体系与测算方法的创新。目前对我国社会福利水平衡量的指标体系大多采用阿玛蒂亚·森在合理假设条件下提出的指标计算公式:wt=yt(1-gt),其中,yt是人均收入,gt是基尼系数。本研究在借鉴国外衡量社会福利指标体系的基础上,结合我国的经济社会发展特点,构建了一个涵盖“功能”与“能力”两个维度的三级指标体系,对我国的社会福利水平进行了全面的考察,在具体的计算中运用了模糊综合评价法,提升了测算结果的客观性。第三,模型构建创新。在探求我国人口流动和社会福利水平之间的关系时,从动态化的分析着手,采用状态空间模型搭建“人口流动——社会福利水平”函数,在模型具体的实现中,针对我国人口流动的阶段性特征,运用时变参数法进行估计和假设检验,得出了非常具有实践指导意义的研究结论。综上来看,本文从一个全新的视角出发,在传统的福利经济学研究框架下引入人口流动相关变量,通过纵向总结建国以来人口流动与福利制度变迁,评估社会福利水平变化,横向借鉴国内外社会福利水平的评价指标体系,构建本研究的社会福利水平评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价法进行量化研究,并使用状态空间模型和时变参数方法深入探讨人口流动的社会福利效应,在研究过程中对人口学、新制度经济学和福利经济学相关理论的交叉运用,是在跨学科领域的一次有益尝试,具有一定的理论价值和实践指导意义。
[Abstract]:Population flow is an important driving force for social progress and economic development. Population flow across regions is not only conducive to the rational allocation of social resources, but also conducive to the economic development of the inflow areas. Social welfare system, as a system closely related to each person, is constantly reformed and perfected in the process of population flow, examining the impact of population flow on China's welfare system, and then promoting the level of social welfare. The study of the relationship between population mobility and social welfare involves demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics. The research focuses on the economic growth effect of the floating population, how to guarantee the education, medical care and old-age care of the floating population, and how to optimize the financial expenditure to solve the regional and urban-rural disparity caused by the floating population. There is an interactive relationship between population mobility and institutional change. Phased institutional changes can lead to population concentration in the short term, and long-term population mobility can also promote the adaptive reform of the social system. At the same time, population mobility and social welfare system. There is a two-way interactive relationship between the degree of social welfare, but this paper logically selects one of the one-way driving force: the social welfare system of population mobility changes the level of social welfare as the research direction, focusing on the analysis of the evolution of social welfare system driven by population mobility, and then assessing the impact of population mobility on the overall level of social welfare. On the specific implementation, this paper combs the domestic and foreign research results on population mobility and social welfare effects, leads to the topic of this paper. Then it selects demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics can be used as research support of the relevant theories, summarizes and comments, on the basis of which the follow-up study of this paper is carried out. The concrete research path and the key content are as follows: First of all, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between population flow and social welfare changes. From the point of view of population itself, in addition to the compulsory migration of the state, people's pursuit of higher social welfare is the main cause of population mobility under the state of free movement. During the period of setbacks and recovery, the period of transition, especially since 1984, China has reformed the traditional social welfare system, changed the way in which the state was responsible for all social welfare, and formed a situation in which the state, the collective and the individual shared the social welfare. From scratch, we have gone through the process from the absence of the system to the construction and implementation of the system in an all-round way. By excluding the mandatory human migration and observing the free flow of the population in the market economy since the reform and opening up in 1978, we can find that China's population has flowed from the countryside to the cities, from the underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions to the developed areas in the east. In the process, not only the income level and welfare status have been improved, but also the overall economic development of the inflow area has been promoted.But at the same time, the population flow has also caused the population loss in the outflow area, the labor force is insufficient, the inflow area resources bearing pressure rises, the infrastructure construction lags behind and other issues. Secondly, the social welfare function of "function" and "capability" space under the framework of Amartya Sen's "feasible capacity method" is analyzed in depth. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the index system of human social development index (hdi) and expansion of hdi, the index system is scientific, operable, reliable, dynamic and relatively independent. The principle of legitimacy, first of all, uses the system analysis method, according to the relevant indicators of social welfare, without any restrictions, as far as possible a comprehensive list, and then uses the theoretical analysis method, from the "function" and "ability" perspective, to analyze and synthesize the connotation, characteristics and development potential of social welfare, and refers to the domestic and foreign. The index system of social welfare level includes two dimensions of "function" and "ability", covering income level, consumption level, housing status, health status, education level and social security. Thirdly, the social welfare level of our country since 1978 is measured by fuzzy logic. In the calculation method, the fuzzy mathematics evaluation method is introduced. The main process includes pattern recognition and model. Passification, the establishment of fuzzy reasoning system, fuzzy rules and fuzzy reasoning, fuzzy suggestion and defuzzification. Empirical analysis, using time series data to measure China's social welfare level since 1978, the results show that since 1978, China's social welfare level in different stages of the promotion rate is not the same, and there are many repetitions in the process. In the early 1980s, driven by the reform and opening up, many of the old systems in China's economic and social development were released and the level of social welfare increased rapidly. But in the middle and late 1980s, the overall level of social welfare did not continue the trend of high growth before, and even declined in the late 1980s. Since then, driven by the establishment of China's socialist market economic system, the level of social welfare has been rising year by year since 1996. From 1996 to 2003, the level of social welfare has increased from 0.4402 to 0.6122, an increase of 39.07%. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, with the recovery of China's economic development, the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand, and the emphasis on social security, people's livelihood projects and ecological protection, the growth rate of social welfare in China has increased, reaching 2014. Fourthly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between population mobility and social welfare level since the reform and opening up in China. The variables of "population mobility rate" and "rural-urban population mobility rate" are introduced into the analysis of social welfare effect, and the time-varying parameters are used to analyze the state space. Inter-modal analysis of the internal relationship between population mobility and changes in social welfare level, assesses the impact of population mobility on social welfare level at different stages of economic and social development in China, and emphatically analyzes the impact of "rural-urban population mobility" on social welfare level. There are two co-integration relations between the welfare level, namely, the national population mobility rate, the long-term relationship between the control variables and the social welfare level; and there is a co-integration relationship between the rural-urban population mobility rate, the control variables and the social welfare level. There is also a long-term relationship between them. From the perspective of trend, since 1978, the role of the overall population flow on social welfare level has shown a phased feature. After a short period of rapid rise, it has declined significantly, and after a small rebound and smooth adjustment, it has risen rapidly, and finally tends to be stable at a higher level. The effect of urban migration on social welfare level is similar to that of rural-urban migration, but the impact of rural-urban migration on social welfare level is more significant than that of national migration. Therefore, the improvement of social welfare level of rural-urban migrants will enhance the overall social welfare level in China. In the end, this paper combines the empirical analysis and empirical analysis of the conclusions, considering the characteristics of the current wave of population migration, on the basis of the existing path of social welfare system changes, clear the direction of future reform, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations for the construction of social welfare system: through the establishment of household registration suitable for population migration Management system, social security mechanism, education system for migrant children, innovative community management model, so that migrants live and work in peace, promote economic development, improve the overall level of social welfare. The scope is basically limited to the study of the relationship between the population flow and the narrow social security system or the study of the relationship between the population flow and the income level or the level of economic development. Secondly, the index system and calculation methods are innovated. At present, the index system of measuring social welfare level in China mostly adopts the index calculation formula proposed by Amartya Sen under reasonable assumptions: wt = YT (1-gt), in which YT is per capita income, GT is Gini coefficient. On the basis of measuring the social welfare index system and combining with the characteristics of China's economic and social development, a three-level index system covering two dimensions of "function" and "ability" is constructed. The level of social welfare in China is investigated comprehensively. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used in the concrete calculation to enhance the objectivity of the measurement results. Thirdly, the model construction innovation. In exploring the relationship between population flow and social welfare level in China, starting from the dynamic analysis, the state space model is used to build the "population flow - social welfare level" function. In the concrete implementation of the model, according to the periodic characteristics of population flow in China, the time-varying parameter method is used. In a word, from a new perspective, this paper introduces the related variables of population mobility into the framework of traditional welfare economics, summarizes the changes of population mobility and welfare system since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and evaluates the changes of social welfare level. In this paper, the evaluation index system of social welfare level at home and abroad is constructed by referring to the evaluation index system of social welfare level horizontally. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the research. The state space model and time-varying parameter method are used to discuss the social welfare effect of population flow in depth. Demography and new system are studied in the process of research. The interdisciplinary application of the theory of degree economics and welfare economics is a beneficial attempt in the interdisciplinary field, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2
[Abstract]:Population flow is an important driving force for social progress and economic development. Population flow across regions is not only conducive to the rational allocation of social resources, but also conducive to the economic development of the inflow areas. Social welfare system, as a system closely related to each person, is constantly reformed and perfected in the process of population flow, examining the impact of population flow on China's welfare system, and then promoting the level of social welfare. The study of the relationship between population mobility and social welfare involves demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics. The research focuses on the economic growth effect of the floating population, how to guarantee the education, medical care and old-age care of the floating population, and how to optimize the financial expenditure to solve the regional and urban-rural disparity caused by the floating population. There is an interactive relationship between population mobility and institutional change. Phased institutional changes can lead to population concentration in the short term, and long-term population mobility can also promote the adaptive reform of the social system. At the same time, population mobility and social welfare system. There is a two-way interactive relationship between the degree of social welfare, but this paper logically selects one of the one-way driving force: the social welfare system of population mobility changes the level of social welfare as the research direction, focusing on the analysis of the evolution of social welfare system driven by population mobility, and then assessing the impact of population mobility on the overall level of social welfare. On the specific implementation, this paper combs the domestic and foreign research results on population mobility and social welfare effects, leads to the topic of this paper. Then it selects demography, welfare economics and new institutional economics can be used as research support of the relevant theories, summarizes and comments, on the basis of which the follow-up study of this paper is carried out. The concrete research path and the key content are as follows: First of all, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between population flow and social welfare changes. From the point of view of population itself, in addition to the compulsory migration of the state, people's pursuit of higher social welfare is the main cause of population mobility under the state of free movement. During the period of setbacks and recovery, the period of transition, especially since 1984, China has reformed the traditional social welfare system, changed the way in which the state was responsible for all social welfare, and formed a situation in which the state, the collective and the individual shared the social welfare. From scratch, we have gone through the process from the absence of the system to the construction and implementation of the system in an all-round way. By excluding the mandatory human migration and observing the free flow of the population in the market economy since the reform and opening up in 1978, we can find that China's population has flowed from the countryside to the cities, from the underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions to the developed areas in the east. In the process, not only the income level and welfare status have been improved, but also the overall economic development of the inflow area has been promoted.But at the same time, the population flow has also caused the population loss in the outflow area, the labor force is insufficient, the inflow area resources bearing pressure rises, the infrastructure construction lags behind and other issues. Secondly, the social welfare function of "function" and "capability" space under the framework of Amartya Sen's "feasible capacity method" is analyzed in depth. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the index system of human social development index (hdi) and expansion of hdi, the index system is scientific, operable, reliable, dynamic and relatively independent. The principle of legitimacy, first of all, uses the system analysis method, according to the relevant indicators of social welfare, without any restrictions, as far as possible a comprehensive list, and then uses the theoretical analysis method, from the "function" and "ability" perspective, to analyze and synthesize the connotation, characteristics and development potential of social welfare, and refers to the domestic and foreign. The index system of social welfare level includes two dimensions of "function" and "ability", covering income level, consumption level, housing status, health status, education level and social security. Thirdly, the social welfare level of our country since 1978 is measured by fuzzy logic. In the calculation method, the fuzzy mathematics evaluation method is introduced. The main process includes pattern recognition and model. Passification, the establishment of fuzzy reasoning system, fuzzy rules and fuzzy reasoning, fuzzy suggestion and defuzzification. Empirical analysis, using time series data to measure China's social welfare level since 1978, the results show that since 1978, China's social welfare level in different stages of the promotion rate is not the same, and there are many repetitions in the process. In the early 1980s, driven by the reform and opening up, many of the old systems in China's economic and social development were released and the level of social welfare increased rapidly. But in the middle and late 1980s, the overall level of social welfare did not continue the trend of high growth before, and even declined in the late 1980s. Since then, driven by the establishment of China's socialist market economic system, the level of social welfare has been rising year by year since 1996. From 1996 to 2003, the level of social welfare has increased from 0.4402 to 0.6122, an increase of 39.07%. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, with the recovery of China's economic development, the implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand, and the emphasis on social security, people's livelihood projects and ecological protection, the growth rate of social welfare in China has increased, reaching 2014. Fourthly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between population mobility and social welfare level since the reform and opening up in China. The variables of "population mobility rate" and "rural-urban population mobility rate" are introduced into the analysis of social welfare effect, and the time-varying parameters are used to analyze the state space. Inter-modal analysis of the internal relationship between population mobility and changes in social welfare level, assesses the impact of population mobility on social welfare level at different stages of economic and social development in China, and emphatically analyzes the impact of "rural-urban population mobility" on social welfare level. There are two co-integration relations between the welfare level, namely, the national population mobility rate, the long-term relationship between the control variables and the social welfare level; and there is a co-integration relationship between the rural-urban population mobility rate, the control variables and the social welfare level. There is also a long-term relationship between them. From the perspective of trend, since 1978, the role of the overall population flow on social welfare level has shown a phased feature. After a short period of rapid rise, it has declined significantly, and after a small rebound and smooth adjustment, it has risen rapidly, and finally tends to be stable at a higher level. The effect of urban migration on social welfare level is similar to that of rural-urban migration, but the impact of rural-urban migration on social welfare level is more significant than that of national migration. Therefore, the improvement of social welfare level of rural-urban migrants will enhance the overall social welfare level in China. In the end, this paper combines the empirical analysis and empirical analysis of the conclusions, considering the characteristics of the current wave of population migration, on the basis of the existing path of social welfare system changes, clear the direction of future reform, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations for the construction of social welfare system: through the establishment of household registration suitable for population migration Management system, social security mechanism, education system for migrant children, innovative community management model, so that migrants live and work in peace, promote economic development, improve the overall level of social welfare. The scope is basically limited to the study of the relationship between the population flow and the narrow social security system or the study of the relationship between the population flow and the income level or the level of economic development. Secondly, the index system and calculation methods are innovated. At present, the index system of measuring social welfare level in China mostly adopts the index calculation formula proposed by Amartya Sen under reasonable assumptions: wt = YT (1-gt), in which YT is per capita income, GT is Gini coefficient. On the basis of measuring the social welfare index system and combining with the characteristics of China's economic and social development, a three-level index system covering two dimensions of "function" and "ability" is constructed. The level of social welfare in China is investigated comprehensively. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used in the concrete calculation to enhance the objectivity of the measurement results. Thirdly, the model construction innovation. In exploring the relationship between population flow and social welfare level in China, starting from the dynamic analysis, the state space model is used to build the "population flow - social welfare level" function. In the concrete implementation of the model, according to the periodic characteristics of population flow in China, the time-varying parameter method is used. In a word, from a new perspective, this paper introduces the related variables of population mobility into the framework of traditional welfare economics, summarizes the changes of population mobility and welfare system since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and evaluates the changes of social welfare level. In this paper, the evaluation index system of social welfare level at home and abroad is constructed by referring to the evaluation index system of social welfare level horizontally. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the research. The state space model and time-varying parameter method are used to discuss the social welfare effect of population flow in depth. Demography and new system are studied in the process of research. The interdisciplinary application of the theory of degree economics and welfare economics is a beneficial attempt in the interdisciplinary field, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2
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