沿海地区农村居民收入对消费的影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-29 13:33
【摘要】：消费是拉动经济增长的重要组成部分之一,近年来我国经济虽已取得长足发展,但消费对GDP贡献持续走低。尽管如此,农村消费市场仍有较大发展空间,激发农民消费潜力,提升居民消费水平有助于推动我国经济发展。因此研究我国农村居民收入对消费的影响对促进我国经济发展有重要作用。在新中国的发展历程中,我国沿海地区对国家经济总量的拉动是有目共睹的。除港澳台外的11个省级行政单位约43%的人口贡献了全国约60%的GDP。然而,我国沿海地区在消费拉动经济方面还是存在不足。农村居民收入和消费水平虽有显著提升,但城乡收入与消费差距却在逐渐拉大,农村消费市场还没有达到应有的水平。释放农村居民消费需求对于解决城乡二元结构,拉动区域经济增长有重要作用。在农村居民收入对消费影响的研究方面,本文参考了西方消费理论及区域经济相关研究成果,综合国内外优秀学者的研究方法,采用理论和实证分析相结合的方式,探究我国沿海地区农村居民收入对消费的影响。本文对2000 2014年我国沿海地区11个省级行政单位的多项经济数据进行分析,发现在收入类型变化上我国沿海地区呈现了独有特点。在四类收入来源中,农村居民工资性收入和家庭经营性收入占比最大,而财产性收入和转移性收入仅占到总收入的15%左右。近年来,我国沿海地区城镇化速度不断加快,农村居民的工资性收入逐渐赶超家庭经营性收入,成为最重要的收入来源。在理论分析的基础上,本文基于面板数据实证分析我国沿海地区11省市农村居民四类收入来源具体变动对消费水平的影响,建立多元回归模型,通过E views9.0进行模型检验和估计。结果发现:1)我国沿海地区农村居民工资性收入对消费的影响存在乘数效应,工资性收入已成为务工农民较为稳定的一类收入;2)农村家庭经营性收入对消费有较小的边际消费倾向,主要原因在于农村基础设施薄弱、自然灾害频繁、相关保险机制不健全等原因导致农民对该类收入心存不确定性;3)农村居民财产性收入和转移性收入对消费存在显著正向影响,其中财产性收入存在乘数效应;4)恩格尔系数、农村最低生活保障以及农村居民的受教育程度对农村居民消费水平也存在影响。针对以上研究,结合沿海地区的现状与发展态势,本文认为加快农村经济产业结构调整、完善农村金融体制改革和产权制度改革、健全社会保障体系等举措可以增加农村居民收入,改善农村居民消费环境,刺激农村居民需求,提升消费水平,缩小城乡差异,从而实现农村经济发展。
[Abstract]:Consumption is one of the important components of stimulating economic growth. Although China's economy has made great progress in recent years, the contribution of consumption to GDP has continued to decline. In spite of this, the rural consumption market still has bigger development space, stimulates the farmer to consume the potential, enhances the resident consumption level to help to promote our country economy development. Therefore, the study of the impact of rural residents' income on consumption plays an important role in promoting China's economic development. In the course of the development of New China, it is obvious to all that the coastal areas of our country pull the national economic aggregate. In addition to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, about 43% of the population of the 11 provincial administrative units contribute about 60% of the country's GDP.. However, China's coastal areas in the consumption-driven economy is still inadequate. Although the income and consumption level of rural residents have been significantly improved, the gap between urban and rural income and consumption has gradually widened, and the rural consumer market has not reached its due level. Releasing the consumption demand of rural residents plays an important role in solving the dual structure of urban and rural areas and stimulating regional economic growth. In the research of the influence of rural residents' income on consumption, this paper, referring to the western consumption theory and the research results of regional economy, synthesizes the research methods of outstanding scholars at home and abroad, and adopts the combination of theory and empirical analysis. To explore the impact of rural residents' income on consumption in coastal areas of China. This paper analyzes the economic data of 11 provincial administrative units in the coastal areas of China from 2000 to 2014. It is found that there are unique characteristics in the changes of income types in the coastal areas of China. Among the four kinds of income sources, rural residents' wage income and household operating income accounted for the largest proportion, while property income and transfer income accounted for only about 15% of the total income. In recent years, the speed of urbanization in the coastal areas of our country has been speeding up, and the income of rural residents has gradually surpassed the income of household management, which has become the most important source of income. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of four kinds of income sources on the consumption level of rural residents in 11 provinces and cities in coastal areas of China based on panel data. A multivariate regression model is established, and the model is tested and estimated by E / views9.0. The results show that: 1) the effect of wage income on consumption of rural residents in coastal areas of China has a multiplier effect. Wage income has become a more stable class of income for migrant farmers. 2) the rural household operating income has a small marginal propensity to consume, mainly due to the weak rural infrastructure and frequent natural disasters. The related insurance mechanism is not perfect and other reasons lead to the farmers have uncertainty about this kind of income. 3) the property income and the transfer income of rural residents have significant positive influence on consumption, in which the property income has multiplier effect (4) Engel coefficient. Rural minimum living security and rural residents' education level also affect the consumption level of rural residents. In view of the above research, combined with the current situation and development situation of the coastal areas, this paper thinks that speeding up the adjustment of the industrial structure of rural economy, perfecting the reform of the rural financial system and the reform of the property right system, Perfecting the social security system and other measures can increase the income of rural residents, improve the consumption environment of rural residents, stimulate the demand of rural residents, improve the consumption level, reduce the differences between urban and rural areas, so as to achieve rural economic development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8
[Abstract]:Consumption is one of the important components of stimulating economic growth. Although China's economy has made great progress in recent years, the contribution of consumption to GDP has continued to decline. In spite of this, the rural consumption market still has bigger development space, stimulates the farmer to consume the potential, enhances the resident consumption level to help to promote our country economy development. Therefore, the study of the impact of rural residents' income on consumption plays an important role in promoting China's economic development. In the course of the development of New China, it is obvious to all that the coastal areas of our country pull the national economic aggregate. In addition to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, about 43% of the population of the 11 provincial administrative units contribute about 60% of the country's GDP.. However, China's coastal areas in the consumption-driven economy is still inadequate. Although the income and consumption level of rural residents have been significantly improved, the gap between urban and rural income and consumption has gradually widened, and the rural consumer market has not reached its due level. Releasing the consumption demand of rural residents plays an important role in solving the dual structure of urban and rural areas and stimulating regional economic growth. In the research of the influence of rural residents' income on consumption, this paper, referring to the western consumption theory and the research results of regional economy, synthesizes the research methods of outstanding scholars at home and abroad, and adopts the combination of theory and empirical analysis. To explore the impact of rural residents' income on consumption in coastal areas of China. This paper analyzes the economic data of 11 provincial administrative units in the coastal areas of China from 2000 to 2014. It is found that there are unique characteristics in the changes of income types in the coastal areas of China. Among the four kinds of income sources, rural residents' wage income and household operating income accounted for the largest proportion, while property income and transfer income accounted for only about 15% of the total income. In recent years, the speed of urbanization in the coastal areas of our country has been speeding up, and the income of rural residents has gradually surpassed the income of household management, which has become the most important source of income. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of four kinds of income sources on the consumption level of rural residents in 11 provinces and cities in coastal areas of China based on panel data. A multivariate regression model is established, and the model is tested and estimated by E / views9.0. The results show that: 1) the effect of wage income on consumption of rural residents in coastal areas of China has a multiplier effect. Wage income has become a more stable class of income for migrant farmers. 2) the rural household operating income has a small marginal propensity to consume, mainly due to the weak rural infrastructure and frequent natural disasters. The related insurance mechanism is not perfect and other reasons lead to the farmers have uncertainty about this kind of income. 3) the property income and the transfer income of rural residents have significant positive influence on consumption, in which the property income has multiplier effect (4) Engel coefficient. Rural minimum living security and rural residents' education level also affect the consumption level of rural residents. In view of the above research, combined with the current situation and development situation of the coastal areas, this paper thinks that speeding up the adjustment of the industrial structure of rural economy, perfecting the reform of the rural financial system and the reform of the property right system, Perfecting the social security system and other measures can increase the income of rural residents, improve the consumption environment of rural residents, stimulate the demand of rural residents, improve the consumption level, reduce the differences between urban and rural areas, so as to achieve rural economic development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.8
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