基于信贷视角的农村居民消费研究
发布时间：2018-10-25 20:53
【摘要】：内需不足一直是我国经济体制改革和实现可持续发展的严重阻碍,而我国扩大内需的巨大潜力在广大农村地区。信贷是农村居民扩大消费的有效途径,然而由于逆向选择和道德风险的存在,信贷投入的提高是否真正发挥了作用还有待探讨,从理论和实证的角度检验我国农村信贷对农村居民消费的影响效应和影响路径是非常有必要的。本文以消费函数理论为基础,从全国和区域两个视角分析农村信贷对农村居民消费水平的影响。从全国视角,选用1979-2013年的时间序列数据,基于三个状态空间模型,研究农村信贷对农村居民消费水平的影响效应、主要传导路径以及影响系数的变动趋势。从区域视角,选用1999-2013年省级面板数据,基于三个面板方程,根据固定效应模型和随机消费模型估计方法,估计东、中、西部不同地区农村信贷对居民消费水平的影响作用和作用路径,并比较区域间的差异。最后,根据灰色关联分析理论,计算了信贷与农村居民消费结构之间的灰色关联系数与灰色关联度,分析信贷对农村居民消费结构升级的作用。根据实证结果,本文得到以下结论：(1)从全国视角看,农村信贷对农村居民消费支出具有显著的正向影响,影响路径主要是通过收入这一中间变量进而间接影响消费支出。(2)从区域视角看,各区域农村信贷都对居民消费具有显著的促进作用,但区域间差异性显著,东部地区消费的信贷弹性最小,西部地区次之,中部地区最高。(3)农村居民信贷水平与居民消费结构之间具有紧密联系,信贷水平的提高能够推动农村居民消费结构升级。(4)收入是影响农村居民消费水平和消费结构的重要因素。对于以上结果出现的原因,本文从农村居民的消费理念,金融知识水平,低收入群体的信贷约束以及收入构成等方面进行了分析。基于本文的实证结论,本文提出以下政策建议：(1)加快农村金融市场建设,增加农村地区的信贷供给。(2)大力发展农村金融教育,提高农村居民金融知识水平。(3)提升农村居民人均纯收入,刺激居民消费支出。(4)完善农村地区社会保障制度,加强政府教育支出支持。
[Abstract]:Insufficient domestic demand has been a serious obstacle to the reform of economic system and the realization of sustainable development in China, and the great potential of expanding domestic demand in China lies in the vast rural areas. Credit is an effective way for rural residents to expand their consumption. However, due to the existence of adverse selection and moral hazard, whether the increase of credit investment has really played a role remains to be explored. It is necessary to test the influence of rural credit on rural residents' consumption from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Based on the theory of consumption function, this paper analyzes the influence of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents from the perspectives of the whole country and the region. Based on three state space models, this paper studies the effect of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents, the main conduction path and the change trend of influence coefficient based on the time series data from 1979 to 2013. From a regional perspective, provincial panel data from 1999 to 2013 are selected to estimate East and Middle, based on three panel equations, fixed effect model and stochastic consumption model. The influence and path of rural credit on the consumption level of residents in different regions of western China, and the differences between regions. Finally, according to the theory of grey correlation analysis, the grey correlation coefficient and grey correlation degree between credit and consumption structure of rural residents are calculated, and the effect of credit on the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents is analyzed. According to the empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) from the national perspective, rural credit has a significant positive impact on rural consumer spending. The influence path is mainly through the intermediate variable of income and then indirectly affects the consumption expenditure. (2) from the regional perspective, rural credit has a significant role in promoting the consumption of residents, but there are significant differences between regions. The credit elasticity of consumption is the smallest in the eastern region, followed by the western region, and the highest in the central region. (3) there is a close relationship between the credit level of rural residents and the consumption structure of the residents. The improvement of credit level can promote the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents. (4) income is an important factor affecting the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents. For the reasons above, this paper analyzes the consumption concept of rural residents, the level of financial knowledge, the credit constraints of low-income groups and income composition. Based on the empirical conclusions of this paper, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: (1) speeding up the construction of rural financial markets, increasing the credit supply in rural areas, (2) vigorously developing rural financial education, Improve the level of financial knowledge of rural residents. (3) improve the per capita net income of rural residents, stimulate consumer expenditure. (4) improve the social security system in rural areas, strengthen the support of government expenditure on education.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8
[Abstract]:Insufficient domestic demand has been a serious obstacle to the reform of economic system and the realization of sustainable development in China, and the great potential of expanding domestic demand in China lies in the vast rural areas. Credit is an effective way for rural residents to expand their consumption. However, due to the existence of adverse selection and moral hazard, whether the increase of credit investment has really played a role remains to be explored. It is necessary to test the influence of rural credit on rural residents' consumption from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Based on the theory of consumption function, this paper analyzes the influence of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents from the perspectives of the whole country and the region. Based on three state space models, this paper studies the effect of rural credit on the consumption level of rural residents, the main conduction path and the change trend of influence coefficient based on the time series data from 1979 to 2013. From a regional perspective, provincial panel data from 1999 to 2013 are selected to estimate East and Middle, based on three panel equations, fixed effect model and stochastic consumption model. The influence and path of rural credit on the consumption level of residents in different regions of western China, and the differences between regions. Finally, according to the theory of grey correlation analysis, the grey correlation coefficient and grey correlation degree between credit and consumption structure of rural residents are calculated, and the effect of credit on the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents is analyzed. According to the empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) from the national perspective, rural credit has a significant positive impact on rural consumer spending. The influence path is mainly through the intermediate variable of income and then indirectly affects the consumption expenditure. (2) from the regional perspective, rural credit has a significant role in promoting the consumption of residents, but there are significant differences between regions. The credit elasticity of consumption is the smallest in the eastern region, followed by the western region, and the highest in the central region. (3) there is a close relationship between the credit level of rural residents and the consumption structure of the residents. The improvement of credit level can promote the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents. (4) income is an important factor affecting the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents. For the reasons above, this paper analyzes the consumption concept of rural residents, the level of financial knowledge, the credit constraints of low-income groups and income composition. Based on the empirical conclusions of this paper, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: (1) speeding up the construction of rural financial markets, increasing the credit supply in rural areas, (2) vigorously developing rural financial education, Improve the level of financial knowledge of rural residents. (3) improve the per capita net income of rural residents, stimulate consumer expenditure. (4) improve the social security system in rural areas, strengthen the support of government expenditure on education.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8
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