天津市基本养老保险适度水平实证分析

发布时间：2019-02-16 11:44

【摘要】：养老保险在社会保险中的占比较高,其养老保险水平在一定程度上可以作为社会保障水平的衡量指标,因此养老保险水平的确定是制定相关政策的关键因素。合理的养老保险水平,既可以保证老年人的基本生活需求,又不会给政府带来较大的财政负担,因此,适度的养老保险水平至关重要。天津市是中国四大直辖市之一,是东部沿海地区比较发达的地区,近些年来,天津市不断深化改革养老保险制度体系,在调整养老保险参保费率、实行统账结合的管理模式等方面取得了很大的进步。但是,面对城镇人口老龄化、政府财政负担沉重等阻碍养老保险制度发展的因素,确立适度的养老保险水平,进一步完善天津市养老保险制度体系仍是亟待解决的问题。文章以福利经济学、帕累托标准以及卡尔多-希克斯社会福利补偿标准等经济学理论以及穆怀中教授的社会保障适度水平模型为基础,采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,对天津市养老保险水平进行分析。首先,根据因子分析方法测定出天津市养老保险发展水平,得出天津市在全国29个省市(青海、西藏除外)所处的地位。其次,文章以穆怀中教授提出的社会养老保障水平模型为基础,建立一个养老保险水平的测算模型,计算得出了天津市养老保险实际水平,并利用"推拉效用"模型测算天津市基本养老保险支出水平与天津市的经济发展水平之间的存在的关系,得出了天津市基本养老保险支出水平与经济发展水平不协调。在此基础上,结合国内相关学者的实证分析,确定天津市养老保险的替代率区间,根据养老保险适度水平模型得出天津市基本养老保险适度水平区间的上下限。最终得出天津市养老保险实际水平低于养老保险适度水平区间的下限,并分析低度运行的原因,从不同角度提出相关的思路和建议,包括适当的提高养老保险的支出水平,继续扩大养老保险的覆盖范围,进一步完善养老保险制度等建议,对基金进行多元化投资的同时建立相应的监管机制以保障基金的安全等措施,以期能够与经济协调发展。
[Abstract]:The level of pension insurance can be used as a measure of the level of social security to a certain extent, so the determination of the level of pension insurance is the key factor to formulate relevant policies. A reasonable level of old-age insurance can not only guarantee the basic living needs of the elderly, but also not bring a large financial burden to the government. Therefore, the appropriate level of old-age insurance is very important. Tianjin is one of the four major municipalities directly under the Central Government in China, and is a relatively developed region in the eastern coastal areas. In recent years, Tianjin has continuously deepened the reform of the pension insurance system and adjusted the premium rates for participating in pension insurance. Great progress has been made in the implementation of the management model of unified accounting. However, in the face of the aging of the urban population, the heavy financial burden of the government and other factors hindering the development of the old-age insurance system, it is still an urgent problem to establish an appropriate level of old-age insurance and to further improve the pension insurance system in Tianjin. Based on the economic theories such as welfare economics, Pareto standard and Cardox social welfare compensation standard, and the model of moderate level of social security put forward by Professor Mu Huazhong, this paper adopts the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. The level of endowment insurance in Tianjin is analyzed. Firstly, according to factor analysis method, the development level of Tianjin pension insurance is determined, and the status of Tianjin in 29 provinces and cities (except Qinghai, Tibet) is obtained. Secondly, based on the model of social old-age security level put forward by Professor Mu Huazhong, this paper establishes a model for calculating the level of old-age insurance, and calculates the actual level of old-age insurance in Tianjin. The relationship between the expenditure level of basic old-age insurance in Tianjin and the level of economic development in Tianjin is calculated by using the "push-pull utility" model, and it is concluded that the expenditure level of basic old-age insurance in Tianjin is not in harmony with the level of economic development. On this basis, combined with the empirical analysis of domestic scholars, the replacement rate interval of Tianjin pension insurance is determined, and the upper and lower limits of Tianjin basic pension insurance moderate level range are obtained according to the appropriate level model of pension insurance. Finally, the actual level of Tianjin pension insurance is lower than the lower limit of the appropriate level range of pension insurance, and the reasons for the low level of operation are analyzed, and the relevant ideas and suggestions are put forward from different angles, including the appropriate improvement of the level of expenditure of pension insurance. We should continue to expand the coverage of old-age insurance, further improve the pension insurance system, and establish a corresponding regulatory mechanism while diversifying investment in the fund to ensure the security of the fund, in order to develop in harmony with the economy.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.67

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