我国房价与婚姻稳定性关系间的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 15:08

本文关键词：我国房价与婚姻稳定性关系间的实证研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近三十年来,我国的婚姻稳定性逐步在下降。国家统计局数据显示,我国粗离婚率从1985年的0.4357%o提高到2014年的2.67%o,提高了5.13倍,反映了中国居民的婚姻处于越来越不稳定的态势。与此同时,我国商品房平均销售价格呈持续上涨趋势,从1985年的310.88元/平米上涨到2014年的6324元/平米,30年间上涨了19倍,年平均增长10.95%。上面的数据表明房价与离婚率的时间序列表现出共同变化趋势。有趣的是,我国1985年--2014年的商品房平均销售价格数据和离婚率数据在变化趋势上非常相似,且两者相关系数达到0.98。这两者之间是否真正存在内在的联系,需要进一步的分析和验证。本文首先从统计数据上对我国房价与婚姻稳定性两者随时间变化情况进行了对比分析,发现无论从全国整体还是分省市来看,房价与婚姻稳定性存在相似的变化趋势,即房价越来越高,离婚率或者离婚夫妇对数也越来越大。鉴于不少学者认为经济因素会影响婚姻稳定性,接下来本文从经济学视角对房价与婚姻稳定性间相互影响机理进行了分析,得出在一定假设条件下,房价会影响婚姻稳定性,而婚姻稳定性也会影响房价的结论。为了检验两者之间在统计上的因果关系,本文使用我国1985年-2014年的离婚率数据和商品房销售价格数据,利用时间序列分析方法中的协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等方法对两者关系进行了探讨。结论认为,样本期间在统计上找不到我国房价影响离婚率的证据,却能找到离婚率影响房价的证据。此结论与相关研究得出的结论存在差异,本文对此的解释是,国外的制度、环境、婚姻观念、社会文化、法律等影响离婚率的因素与我国存在差异,且这些研究基于的假设条件在我国也并不一定成立,所以导致国外学者得出的结论在我国不一定成立；而国内的研究结论与本文存在差异的原因是,其在实证分析中进行格兰杰因果检验时采用了非平稳序列的房价和离婚率原序列,违背了格兰杰因果检验的要求,可能影响了该结论的可靠性,使得与本文结论存在差异。最后,基于本文的研究结论,本文认为我国相关政府部门应该坚持进一步完善房地产调控政策,防止我国房价过快增长,保证房地产市场健康有效运行。
[Abstract]:In the past three decades, the stability of marriage in China has been declining gradually. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the crude divorce rate in China has increased from 0.4357o on 1985 to 2.67o on 2014. The increase of 5.13 times reflects the increasingly unstable trend of marriage among Chinese residents. At the same time, the average selling price of commercial housing in China is continuously rising. From 310.88 yuan per square meter in 1985 to 6324 yuan per square meter in 2014, it has risen by 19 times in 30 years. The data above show that the time series of house prices and divorce rates show a common trend. Interestingly. From 1985 to 2014, the average sales price data and divorce rate data of commercial housing in China are very similar. And the correlation coefficient between the two reached 0.98. Whether there is a real internal relationship between the two. Need further analysis and verification. First of all, from the statistical data of China's housing prices and marital stability with the change of time were compared, found that no matter from the whole country or sub-provinces and cities. There is a similar change trend between house price and marriage stability, that is, the price of house is higher and higher, divorce rate or divorce couples logarithm is also increasing. In view of many scholars think that economic factors will affect the stability of marriage. Then from the perspective of economics, this paper analyzes the interaction between house prices and marital stability, and concludes that under certain assumptions, housing prices will affect the stability of marriage. In order to test the statistical causality between the two, this paper uses the divorce rate data from 1985 to 2014 and the sale price data of commercial housing. The relationship between them is discussed by using the methods of co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test in time series analysis. During the sample period, we can not find the evidence that the housing price affects the divorce rate in our country, but can find the evidence that the divorce rate affects the housing price. This conclusion is different from the conclusion of the related research. The explanation of this paper is that. Foreign institutions, environment, concept of marriage, social culture, law and other factors affecting divorce rates are different from China, and the hypothetical conditions on which these studies are based are not necessarily established in China. So the conclusion of foreign scholars may not hold true in our country. The reason for the difference between the domestic research results and this paper is that the Granger causality test in the empirical analysis of the use of non-stationary series of housing prices and divorce rates of the original sequence, contrary to the Granger causality test requirements. This may affect the reliability of the conclusion, making it different from the conclusion of this paper. Finally, based on the conclusions of this paper, this paper believes that the relevant government departments in China should adhere to the further improvement of real estate regulation and control policies. To prevent the rapid growth of housing prices in China, to ensure the healthy and effective operation of the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C913.1;F299.23

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