基于层次分析法的舆情风险评估指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 08:34

本文关键词： 舆情引导风险评估指标体系　出处：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：舆情风险评估是开展舆情引导的重要环节。在新传播环境下,开展舆情处置需要关口前移,科学把握舆论的生成和演化规律,构建更加科学的舆情风险评估体系。基于层次分析法的舆情风险评估指标体系,将舆情事件性质和责任部门的舆情回应能力列为舆情主体一级指标,将舆情强度、舆情态度、舆情增速列为舆情本体一级指标,将舆情对社会及受众的影响列为舆情客体一级指标,并在此基础上细分了7个二级指标和21个三级指标。研究发现,相关舆情信息的社交媒体扩散度、境外媒体扩散度、境外媒体态度,舆情事件的模糊性、相关性等因素,以及舆情回应机制建设等,是决定舆情风险等级高低的最重要因素。
[Abstract]:Public opinion risk assessment is an important link to conduct public opinion guidance. In the new communication environment, public opinion handling needs to move forward, scientifically grasp the generation and evolution of public opinion. Build a more scientific public opinion risk assessment system. Based on the AHP index system of public opinion risk assessment, the nature of public opinion events and the public opinion response ability of the responsible department are listed as the public opinion subject level index. Will public opinion intensity, public opinion attitude, public opinion growth rate as public opinion Noumenon level indicators, public opinion on the impact of society and audience as the public opinion object level indicators. On this basis, 7 secondary indicators and 21 third-level indicators are subdivided. The study found that the social media diffusion degree, the foreign media diffusion degree, the attitude of foreign media, the ambiguity of public opinion events of related public opinion information. The factors such as correlation and the construction of public opinion response mechanism are the most important factors to determine the level of public opinion risk.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学中国社会管理研究院/社会学院;中国传媒大学媒介与公共事务研究院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“重大突发事件社会舆情演化规律及应对策略研究”(15JZD027) 国家社会科学基金一般项目“'中国发展道路'的国际影响力与国际传播话语权研究”(12BXW029)
【分类号】：C912.63
【正文快照】： 根据乌尔里希·贝克的“风险社会”理论,由人类实践而导致的风险是社会发展必然的产物。社会风险无处不在,具有高度的复杂性、广泛的影响性、潜在的危害性。但“风险社会”理论强调的主要是“技术型风险”,未能准确预测新互联网时代的网络舆情等“社会型风险”的潜在危害。

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