当代中国离婚和丧偶状态变化趋势的模型分析和预测

发布时间：2018-03-14 02:41

本文选题：离婚　切入点：丧偶　出处：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：离婚和丧偶问题是婚姻问题的重要方面。改革开放以来特别是90年代以来,中国发生了深刻的变革,由于受到社会、经济、文化背景、法律等因素的影响,人们的婚姻方式发生了很大的改变,其特点之一就是大部分人对离婚和丧偶后再婚持宽容态度。离婚意味着家庭的破裂,我国的离婚率正呈现出上升的趋势,伴随离婚产生的财产分配、孩子教育抚养以及老人赡养等问题,极易造成双方的冲突。丧偶问题特别是老年人的丧偶问题同样值得人们关注,随着人均寿命的延长丧偶老人的数量不断增多,他们作为弱势群体需要更多的帮助。因此研究离婚和丧偶状况对了解我国婚姻状况的趋势,制定相关的经济、法律政策具有重要的借鉴意义。本文收集整理了《中国人口统计年鉴1996-2010》中离婚和丧偶的数据,应用改进的Lee-cater模型,并对离婚和丧偶两种婚姻状态分男女建模,估计了近年来全国、市、镇、乡分性别分年龄离婚和丧偶的比例变化趋势,,并基于最优模型对两种婚姻状态进行了进一步讨论。具体地,第一,对1995年、2000年、2008年全国以及1995年、2005年、2008年市、镇、乡的观测值和拟合值进行了比较,并讨论了变化趋势。第二,对市、镇、乡的拟合曲线进行了比较,讨论了从1995年到2008年的变化,并分析了趋势变化的原因。第三,基于1995-2008年的数据对2009年婚姻状况的比例进行了预测,并将得到的预测值与2009年的观测值进行了比较。经过两种婚姻状态的趋势变化和预预显示了改进的lee-carter模型对分析10年到20年短期数据的准确性和预测能力强。在最后,本文在模型分析结果的基础上总结了离婚和丧偶一些显著性的变化趋势,提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Divorce and widowhood are important aspects of marriage. Since the reform and opening up, especially since 90s, profound changes have taken place in China, which have been influenced by social, economic, cultural, legal and other factors. Great changes have taken place in people's way of marriage, one of the characteristics of which is that most people are tolerant of divorce and remarriage after widowhood. Divorce means the breakdown of the family, and the divorce rate in our country is on the rise. Along with the problems of property distribution, education and maintenance of children and the maintenance of the elderly, it is easy to cause conflicts between the two sides. The problem of widowhood, especially the problem of widowhood of the elderly, is also worth people's attention. As the number of widowed elderly people increases with the increase of life expectancy, they need more help as a vulnerable group. Therefore, to study divorce and widowhood status in order to understand the trend of marital status in our country and to formulate the relevant economy, The law policy has the important reference significance. This paper collects and collates the data of divorce and widowhood in Chinese demographic Yearbook 1996-2010, applies the improved Lee-cater model, and models the marriage status of divorce and widowhood, and estimates the status of divorce and widowhood in recent years in the whole country, city and town. The change trend of the ratio of divorce and widowhood by sex, age, and widowhood in rural areas is discussed further based on the optimal model. Specifically, first, on 1995, 2000, 2008, all over the country, and 2008, 2008, city, town, city, town, etc. The observed values and fitting values are compared and the trend of change is discussed. Secondly, the fitting curves of cities, towns and townships are compared, the changes from 1995 to 2008 are discussed, and the reasons for the trend changes are analyzed. Based on data from 1995-2008, the proportion of marital status in 2009 was predicted, The predicted values are compared with the observed values in 2009. Through the trend changes of two marriage states and pre-display, the improved lee-carter model has strong accuracy and predictive ability to analyze short-term data from 10 to 20 years. Finally, based on the results of the model analysis, this paper summarizes some significant trends of divorce and widowhood, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C913.1

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