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养老金替代率适度水平的确定研究

发布时间:2018-03-20 07:26

  本文选题:养老金替代率 切入点:理论模型 出处:《中国矿业大学》2012年博士论文 论文类型:学位论文


【摘要】:在养老保险范畴内,养老金替代率是衡量养老保障水平的一个概念,是退休人员养老金与职工工资的比率,既与社会收入水平相关,又影响着养老金支付水平。它关系到每一位老年人生活质量和国家与社会的负担能力,甚至关系到经济系统的稳态均衡、社会的和谐稳定等若干方面。因此,养老金替代率是各国政府在养老保险制度设计时必须考虑的关键因素。 由于每个国家的生产力发展水平不同、养老保险制度选择不同及其改革方向不同,养老金替代率适度水平的确定标准和确定方法就有所不同。我国现行的养老金替代率实际水平是否合理,以及合理的养老金替代率水平如何确定,是亟待深入探究的问题。 从研究视角来说,在养老保险制度设计或制度改革的过程中,应从保障老年人的生活消费的角度,确定老年人的相对养老收益,,确定相对稳定的养老金替代率;再根据养老金替代率的含义确定退休人员的养老金给付水平;进而根据养老基金平衡的原则,由给付水平确定养老金的缴交水平。 从研究过程和方法来说,第一,依据相关研究成果的综述,运用数理分析方法,初步选择养老金替代率的影响因素,归纳关于养老金替代率的系统模块;第二,理论分析系统模块两两之间的作用机理,构建关于养老金替代率的多个因素共存的、平衡稳定的体系结构;第三,运用结构方程模型方法,构建养老金替代率的理论模型,确定体系中各因素变量及其关系;第四,基于理论模型,结合经济学弹性原理,进行养老金替代率适度水平的测算与确定;第五,基于替代率适度水平,进行养老保险体系其它关键参数的测算。 构建的养老金替代率理论模型,内含用十一个观测变量反映的七个系统模块,以及六个直接效应、七个间接效应和三个总体效应,其是由最优结构方程模型的变量抽象和概念化后形成。其中,对于理论假设模型与实际观测数据的适配研究,采用宏观面板数据,使用一般化最小平方法进行参数估计,运用混合型结构方程模型得到较佳的效果。 确定的养老金替代率是一个相对稳定值,当缴费年限介于35至40年、工资增长率介于5%至11%、记账利率介于3%至6%时,养老金替代率适度水平位于39%至56%。以养老金替代率的适度水平为目标,政府、单位与个人的基本养老保险责任分担比例应是1:3.3:2.2,三者分别为4.55%、15%、10%的缴费率最优组合具有可行性;若根据上年养老金水平调整养老金,调整幅度应为13至16%,若按上年社会平均工资增长率调整养老金,调整幅度应为90至100%。 研究的创新内容主要有二个,一是通过梳理关键因素之间的因果关系,构建概念模型,运用结构方程模型方法,验证理论假设模型与实际观测数据的适配度,建立养老金替代率理论模型;二是以多因素决定的养老金替代率呈稳定性的动态变化为前提,根据经济学中弹性的微分含义,通过测度养老金替代率对其决定因素的敏感程度,确定养老金替代率的适度水平。
[Abstract]:In the pension insurance categories, pension replacement rate is a concept to measure the old-age security level, is the ratio of retirement pensions and wages, not only related to the social income level also affects the level of pension payments. It is related to the affordability of the elderly every quality of life and the state and society, even to the the stable equilibrium of the economic system, some aspects such as a stable and harmonious society. Therefore, the pension replacement rate is a key factor in the government pension system must be considered when designing.
Because each country's productivity level is different, choose different endowment insurance system and its reform direction, determine the standard pension replacement rate level and determination method is different. China's current pension replacement rate level is reasonable, and the reasonable level of pension replacement rate is how to determine the need to delve into the problem.
From the research perspective, in the process of the design of old-age insurance system or system reform, we should protect the lives of the elderly consumer point of view, to determine the relative pension income of the elderly, to determine the relative stability of the pension replacement rate; then retirees pension payment level is determined according to the pension rate of substitution; then according to the pension fund balance the principle of payment of pension level determined by the payment level.
From the research process and methods, first, based on the review of the related research results, using mathematical analysis method, factors affecting the initial selection of pension replacement rate, induction system module on the pension replacement rate; second, theoretical analysis of the mechanism between the 22 modules of the system, build on the coexistence of multiple factors of the pension replacement rate of the system the structure of balanced and stable; third, using the method of structural equation model, construct the theoretical model of pension replacement rate, determine the variable factors of the system and its relations; fourth, based on the theoretical model, combined with the economics principle of elasticity, the pension replacement rate calculation and determination of the appropriate level; fifth, moderate substitution rate based on estimates of endowment insurance other key parameters of the system.
The theoretical model construction of pension replacement rate, seven modules with eleven variables to reflect, as well as six direct effects, indirect effects of seven and three overall effect, which is formed by the optimal structural equation model of variable abstraction and conceptualization. Among them, for the hypothesis model and the actual observation data adaptation research, using macro panel data, parameter estimation using generalized least square method, the equation of the hybrid structure model has better effect.
To determine the pension replacement rate is a relatively stable value, when the payment period ranged from 35 to 40 years, the wage growth rate ranged from 5% to 11%, accounting rate ranged from 3% to 6%, a moderate level of pension replacement rate level in 39% to 56%. in the pension replacement rate as the goal, the government share the basic old-age insurance responsibility the units and individuals shall be 1:3.3:2.2, three were 4.55%, 15%, 10% of the contribution rate of the optimal combination is feasible; if the level of pension pension adjustment according to the previous year, the adjustment should be 13 to 16%, according to the average wage last year growth rate of social pension adjustment, the adjustment should be 90 to 100%.
There are two main contents of innovation research, a causal relationship between the key factors by combing, constructs a conceptual model, using the method of structural equation model, fit verify the hypothesis model and the actual observation data, the establishment of the pension replacement rate model; two is decided by many factors of the pension replacement rate is dynamic stability as the premise, according to the differential meaning of elasticity in the economics, through the measure of pension replacement rate is more sensitive to the decision factors, to determine the appropriate level of pension replacement rate.

【学位授予单位】:中国矿业大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:C913.6

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