包容性增长及国际比较:基于经济增长与人类发展的视角

发布时间：2018-03-20 07:05

本文选题：包容性增长　切入点：人类发展　出处：《国际经济评论》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：未来世界走向将根本改变两个世纪以来"大分化"趋势,将走向南北国家"大趋同"趋势,其中中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥、印度尼西亚五个发展中人口大国扮演重要角色,尤其是中国。本文通过对人均GDP、人类发展指数、贫困发生率、收入基尼系数四维指标对五大国发展分析(1980-2015),预计了发展趋势(2015-2030)。从人均GDP相对水平看,中国、印度、印度尼西亚呈现发展趋同;从人类发展指标看,人类发展水平不断提高,甚至跃迁,尤其是中国最显著,极大地推动了世界人类发展水平的进步;从贫困发生率来看,五大人口国家大幅度减少绝对贫困人口,进而导致世界贫困发生率大幅度下降,其中中国贡献最大;从基尼系数来看,中国呈现先上升后下降趋势,其他各国呈现较为复杂的情形,中国走上全面包容性增长轨道。
[Abstract]:In the future, the trend of the world will fundamentally change the trend of "great polarization" over the past two centuries, and will lead to the trend of "great convergence" between the north and the south. Among them, China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia play an important role in the five major developing countries with a large population. Especially in China. Through the analysis of GDP per capita, human development index (HDI), incidence of poverty, income Gini coefficient four-dimensional index to the development of the five major countries from 1980 to 2015, the development trend is predicted to be 2015-2030. From the relative level of per capita GDP, China, India, Indonesia is showing a convergence of development; from the point of view of human development indicators, the level of human development continues to rise and even changes, especially in China, which greatly promote the progress of the world's level of human development; from the perspective of the incidence of poverty, The five most populous countries have substantially reduced the absolute poverty population, which has led to a significant drop in the incidence of poverty in the world, with China contributing the most. From the perspective of the Gini coefficient, China has shown a trend of rising first and then declining. Other countries are more complicated, and China is on the path of inclusive growth.
【作者单位】：清华大学国情研究院;清华大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家高端智库建设项目(20155010298) 中国博士后科学基金(2016M600104)的资助
【分类号】：F113;K02

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