中国近五百年旱涝灾害与内乱关系的定量分析

发布时间：2018-04-26 06:04

本文选题：旱涝灾害 + 极端气候变化　；参考：《中国科学:地球科学》2017年12期

【摘要】：众多的大数据定量研究证明了在历史时期,极端气候变化能造成中国社会不稳定.但是,已有的研究将温度和降水量作为主要解析变量,欠缺了旱涝灾害对社会动荡影响的大数据定量分析.同时,相关研究也没有分不同地理区域和不同时间尺度进行对比和深入探讨.为解决该问题,本研究对中国三个农业生态区(水稻种植区、小麦种植区和牧业区)开展定量分析,探究公元1470~1911年间中国旱涝灾害与内乱的对应关系.鉴于旱涝与内乱的对应可能是"非线性"和"非固定性"的,我们采用Poisson回归分析和小波一致性分析检测两者关系.结果表明,旱涝灾害诱发了中国历史时期的内乱,但区域差异显著.在水稻种植区,洪涝在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;在小麦种植区,洪涝和干旱均在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;牧业区的内乱只在数十年际尺度与洪涝相关.此外,在数十年际时间尺度,三个农业生态区的旱涝事件只在人口密度不断增加或处于相对区域承载力较高的水平时段内和内乱显著相关.本研究指出气候-战争的对应关系明显受地区因素如自然环境及人口压力影响,有鉴于此,在研究历史时期的人地关系时,应先把不同地区的数据分割,再以每个地区为单位进行独立分析,这要点有望被广泛应用于后续研究.
[Abstract]:Numerous quantitative studies by big data have proved that extreme climate change can lead to social instability in China during the historical period. However, the existing studies take temperature and precipitation as the main analytical variables, and lack big data quantitative analysis of the effects of drought and flood on social unrest. At the same time, the relevant studies are not divided into different geographical areas and different time scales for comparison and in-depth study. In order to solve this problem, quantitative analysis was carried out on three agricultural ecological regions (rice, wheat and animal husbandry areas) in China, and the corresponding relationship between drought and flood disasters and civil unrest in China from 1470 to 1911 was explored. In view of the fact that the correspondence between drought, flood and civil disturbance may be "nonlinear" and "non-stationary", we use Poisson regression analysis and wavelet consistency analysis to detect the relationship between them. The results show that the drought and flood disaster induced civil strife in the historical period of China, but the regional differences are significant. In rice growing areas, floods and waterlogging cause civil unrest in interannual and decadal time scales, and in wheat-growing areas, floods and droughts cause civil strife in interannual and decades-long time scales. The civil unrest in pastoral areas is associated with flooding only on a decades-long scale. In addition, on the scale of several decades, the drought and flood events in the three agro-ecological regions are significantly related to civil unrest only in the period of increasing population density or at a higher level of relative regional carrying capacity. This study points out that the corresponding relationship between climate and war is obviously affected by regional factors such as natural environment and population pressure. In view of this, when studying the relationship between man and land in historical period, we should first divide the data of different regions. Independent analysis based on each region is expected to be widely used in follow-up studies.
【作者单位】：香港大学地理系香港大学中国发展国际研究中心;广州大学地理科学学院;香港教育大学社会科学系;南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;
【基金】：许爱周信托基金项目(编号:201502172003、201602172006) 中国香港特别行政区政府研究资助局项目(编号:HKU745113H、17610715) CAS-SAFEA国际合作创新研究团队项目资助
【分类号】：C912.4;P426.616

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