中国老年人失能时间研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 23:16

本文选题：失能时间 + 死亡风险　；参考：《中国人口科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：文章基于2008~2011年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查数据,通过logit模型研究死亡概率、自理状态转移概率的影响因素,并在此基础上运用自理状态生命表估算了不同特征老年人群体的余寿和预期失能时间。结果发现:(1)65岁老年人的平均余寿约为16.04年,其中预期完全自理、轻度失能、中度失能、重度失能的时间分别为10.11年、4.42年、0.88年、0.63年;随着年龄增加,老年人预期中度、重度失能时间占余寿的比重快速上升;女性老年人的平均余寿比男性老年人长2.47年,但女性老年人的预期失能时间比男性老年人长2.26年,其中预期中度、重度失能时间长0.77年。(2)居住在城镇、有医疗保险的老年人死亡风险低、平均余寿长,但预期失能时间特别是中度、重度失能时间较长。(3)在婚、有健康生活习惯(如经常体育锻炼、不吸烟、不喝酒)的老年人死亡风险低、平均余寿长,且预期完全自理时间相对较长。文章认为,随着社会保障制度的不断完善,在中国老年人寿命延长的同时,失能时间也相应增加,政府应出台政策支持老年人家庭以减轻其照料负担;给予丧偶老年人更多的情感支持和精神慰藉,鼓励和引导老年人形成健康的生活习惯,这对"健康老龄化"有着重要意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the investigation data of the influential factors of health and longevity of the elderly in China from 2008 to 2011, the factors influencing the probability of death and the probability of transition of self-care state were studied by logit model. On the basis of this, the life table of self-care state is used to estimate the remaining life and expected disability time of the elderly with different characteristics. The results showed that the average remaining life expectancy of the 65-year-old was about 16.04 years, of which the expected periods of total self-care, mild disability, moderate disability and severe disability were 10.11, 4.42, 0.88-0.63 years, respectively. The average residual life span of female elderly is 2.47 years longer than that of male, but the expected disability time of female is 2.26 years longer than that of male. The elderly with medical insurance have a low risk of death, with an average remaining life span, but expected to be disabled, especially moderate, severe disability for a longer period of time in marriage. The elderly with healthy living habits (such as regular physical exercise, non-smoking, non-drinking) have a low risk of death, average remaining life, and expect to take care of themselves for a relatively long time. With the continuous improvement of the social security system, the life expectancy of the elderly in China has been prolonged and the time of disability has increased accordingly. The government should introduce policies to support the elderly families in order to lighten their burden of care. It is of great significance to give the widowed elderly more emotional support and spiritual comfort to encourage and guide them to form healthy living habits.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所;中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院;
【基金】：博士后基金项目“城镇化背景下农村失能老人长期照护制度研究”(编号:2017M611098)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C913.6;R161.7

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