精准抽样是量化分析推论的基础

发布时间：2018-05-20 19:07

本文选题：代表性概率样本 + 覆盖偏差　；参考：《学术界》2011年10期

【摘要】：随着近三十年来我国社会的快速发展与深刻变迁,大量农村、小城镇人口向大中城市集中,造成高比例的"人户分离"现象。而城市居民也因为城区改造和扩张,造成城市内部大量的"人户分离"。这使得传统的依赖户籍信息进行抽样的社会科学调查,在样本的抽取方面产生极大的困难与系统偏差。因此,如何以精准抽样为基础,从而避免造成导致"社会整体误解"的调查结果,已成为近年来中国社会科学量化研究中一个不容忽略的问题。本文旨在一方面对那些缺乏精准抽样的研究进行评论,另一方面也向读者介绍依托GIS/GPS最新技术发展而来的"GIS/GPS辅助的区域抽样方法",作为转型期中国社会大规模人口流动条件下精准抽样的解决方案,以供学界参考备用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development and profound changes of our society in the past 30 years, a large number of rural areas and small towns are concentrated in large and medium-sized cities, resulting in a high proportion of the phenomenon of "separation of people and households". Urban residents also because of urban transformation and expansion, resulting in a large number of urban "household separation." This makes the traditional social science survey which relies on the household registration information to carry on the sampling, and produces the great difficulty and the system deviation in the sample extraction aspect. Therefore, how to take accurate sampling as the basis to avoid causing "social misunderstanding" has become a problem that can not be ignored in the quantitative research of social science in China in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to comment on the lack of accurate sampling. On the other hand, it also introduces the "GIS/GPS aided regional sampling method", which is based on the latest technology development of GIS/GPS, as a solution for accurate sampling under the condition of large-scale population flow in China during the period of social transformation, which can be used as a reference for academic circles.
【作者单位】：北京大学中国国情研究中心;北京大学政府管理学院;
【分类号】：C3

【共引文献】