3E系统协调度评价模型比较及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 22:49

本文选题：3E系统 + 协调度　；参考：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：3E系统协调度评价模型作为能源、经济与环境发展综合评价与规划的重要工具，有着广泛的应用前景。随着计量技术的发展，协调度评价方法也不断革新，为实际应用提供了多种选择。针对目前已有协调度评价模型的多样性及差异性，本文依据模型协调度衡量标准的不同，将常见协调度评价模型分为距离型协调度评价模型、变化型协调度评价模型及综合型协调度评价模型三大类。通过对三类协调度评价模型的原理和计算方法的比较，发现三类协调度评价模型的构建角度、基本假设、基本原理、计算式及应用前提虽存在较大差异，但三类协调度评价模型中的典型代表模型离差系数最小化协调度评价模型、发展速度一致性协调度评价模型和整体协调度模型具有相同的测算基础。在此基础上，构建3E系统协调度评价指标体系，以湖南省2000—2011年3E系统的时间序列数据为样本，选取离差系数最小化协调度评价模型、发展速度一致性协调度评价模型和整体协调度评价模型作为实证应用模型，分别测算出湖南省3E系统的距离型协调度、变化型协调度和综合型协调度，并运用EVIEWS统计软件和SPSS判别分析法的第一类错判率及第二类错判率分别对实证结果的差异性和准确性进行比较。结果表明：三类协调度评价模型的测算结果具有较大的差异性，一般情况下，距离型协调度评价模型和综合型协调度评价模型的测算结果比较接近，而变化型协调度评价模型的测算结果则波动较大且比其他两种模型的测算结果偏高；准确性方面，距离型协调度评价模型的第一类错判率和第二类错判率最低，，评价准确度最高，综合型协调度评价模型其次，变化型协调度评价模型的第一类错判率和第二类错判率均较高，评价准确度较低。最后，结合本文各方面的比较及应用，得出结论。本文创新性地对目前常见的3E系统协调度评价模型进行比较及其应用研究，具有重要的理论与实际意义。它不仅为当前全球关注的热点问题——能源、经济与环境的协调发展，尤其为不同情况下3E系统协调度评价模型的选择提供了理论参考，而且有助于人们更准确全面地认识湖南省能源、经济与环境的协调发展状况，为湖南省构建两型社会和实施可持续发展战略提供了重要理论依据。
[Abstract]:As an important tool for comprehensive evaluation and planning of energy, economic and environmental development, 3e system coordination evaluation model has a wide application prospect. With the development of measurement technology, the evaluation method of coordination degree has been innovated, which provides many choices for practical application. In view of the diversity and difference of the existing coordination degree evaluation models, this paper divides the common coordination degree evaluation model into the distance coordination degree evaluation model according to the different evaluation standards of the coordination degree of the model. There are three kinds of evaluation models of variable coordination degree and comprehensive coordination degree. By comparing the principles and calculation methods of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models, it is found that there are great differences in the construction angles, basic assumptions, basic principles, calculation formulas and application premises of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models. However, the typical representative model of three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models, such as the deviation coefficient minimization coordination evaluation model, the development speed consistency coordination evaluation model and the overall coordination degree model, have the same calculation basis. On this basis, the evaluation index system of coordination degree of 3e system is constructed. Based on the time series data of 3e system from 2000 to 2011 in Hunan Province, the minimum coordination degree evaluation model of deviation coefficient is selected. The evaluation model of speed consistency coordination degree and the overall coordination degree evaluation model are used as empirical application models to calculate the distance coordination degree, variation coordination degree and comprehensive coordination degree of Hunan 3e system, respectively. The difference and accuracy of the empirical results are compared by using EVIEWS statistical software and SPSS discriminant analysis. The results show that the results of the three kinds of coordination degree evaluation models are quite different. In general, the calculation results of the distance coordination degree evaluation model and the comprehensive coordination degree evaluation model are close to each other. On the other hand, the results of the variable coordination degree evaluation model fluctuate greatly and are higher than those of the other two models, and the accuracy of the distance coordination degree evaluation model is the lowest in the first category and the second type. The evaluation accuracy is the highest, the evaluation model of comprehensive coordination degree is the second, the first type error rate and the second type error rate of the variable coordination degree evaluation model are both high, and the evaluation accuracy is low. Finally, combined with the comparison and application of various aspects of this paper, a conclusion is drawn. In this paper, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to compare and apply the commonly used evaluation models of 3e system coordination degree. It not only provides a theoretical reference for the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment, but also for the selection of evaluation model of 3e system coordination degree in different situations. It also helps people to understand the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment in Hunan Province more accurately and comprehensively, and provides an important theoretical basis for the construction of a two-type society and the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development in Hunan Province.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C81

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