当代青年女性晚婚对低生育水平的影响

发布时间：2018-06-02 00:45

本文选题：总和生育率 + 未婚比例　；参考：《青年研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：中国进入低生育水平时期以来,人口调查数据显示生育率仍在下降,不断刷新最低记录。然而,这些结果总被视为调查漏报导致的统计虚幻,人口宣传、管理和决策时参照的则是另一套基于间接估计之上的生育率口径。两者之间的严重脱节引发一系列混乱和争论。根据大量人口数据分析发现,青年女性晚婚趋势与生育率下降密切相关,而且标准化比较显示,晚婚因素所导致的生育率下降幅度很大。晚婚是理解生育率下降并达到极低水平的一个不可忽略的重要因素。
[Abstract]:Since China has entered a low - fertility level , population surveys have shown that fertility rates are still declining and the lowest records are constantly refreshed . However , these results are often seen as a statistical illusive , population - raising , management and decision - making that is based on indirect estimates . The serious disconnect between the two causes a series of confusion and debate . According to a large number of population data analyses , the trend of late marriage in young women is closely related to the decline in fertility rates , and standardized comparisons show that the decline in fertility rates caused by late marriage is a significant factor in understanding fertility decline and reaching a very low level .
【作者单位】：北京大学中国社会发展研究中心;北京大学社会学系;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“中国低生育率研究”(12JJD840005)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C913.1

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