西北地区县域脆弱性时空格局演变

发布时间：2018-06-17 01:19

本文选题：人地系统脆弱性 + 模糊层次分析法　；参考：《地理科学进展》2017年04期

【摘要】：人地耦合系统的脆弱性研究作为未来地理科学的十大科学研究命题之一,已成为人地关系和区域可持续发展研究的重要领域。本文以西北地区316个县(市)为研究单元,以2003、2008和2013年社会经济统计数据、气象数据、遥感影像数据和空间矢量数据为基础,综合运用模糊层次分析和变异系数分析等方法,构建西北地区人地系统脆弱性评价模型并说明其时空演化过程。研究表明:1西北地区县域脆弱性指数整体呈现北低南高、东低西高的格局。大中型城市对周边区域产生显著的影响并已形成以自身为核心的低脆弱圈层,各低脆弱圈层逐渐关联形成大范围的低脆弱片区;24个子系统的脆弱性水平分别表现出一定的地域分异格局,社会子系统和经济子系统脆弱性的空间集聚特征明显且变化显著,资源环境子系统和政策子系统脆弱性则趋于碎片化且相对稳定;3西北地区人地系统脆弱性的空间差异度呈缓慢增大趋势,社会脆弱性差异度的变化趋势为先增加后下降,经济脆弱性与资源环境脆弱性差异度均表现出持续下降的态势,政策扶持性在地区间的差异较大且整体格局稳定;4在政策的引导和扶持下,资源开发促使经济发展、环境质量和人类福祉发生转变,最终影响社会发展水平和社会的稳定程度,而社会的发展和稳定又反作用于经济发展、环境质量、资源开发和政策制定。本文以"脆弱性"的视角解构西北地区人地系统时空动态变化过程,为西北地区社会经济发展提供理论方法参考和实践应用借鉴。
[Abstract]:As one of the ten scientific research propositions of the future geography science, the vulnerability study of human-earth coupling system has become an important field in the research of human-land relationship and regional sustainable development. In this paper, 316 counties (cities) in Northwest China are used as research units, based on the social and economic statistics, meteorological data, remote sensing image data and spatial vector data of 20032008 and 2013, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and coefficient of variation analysis are used synthetically. The vulnerability assessment model of human-land system in Northwest China is constructed and its time-space evolution process is explained. The study shows that the vulnerability index of the county area in the northwest of China shows the pattern of north low and south high and east low and west high as a whole. Large and medium-sized cities have a significant impact on the surrounding areas and have formed low vulnerable layers with their own core, The vulnerability level of 24 subsystems showed a certain regional differentiation pattern, and the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the vulnerability of social subsystem and economic subsystem were obvious and changed significantly. The vulnerability of resources and environment subsystems and policy subsystems tended to be fragmented, and the spatial variability of vulnerability of human-land system in Northwest China increased slowly, while the variation trend of social vulnerability increased first and then decreased. The difference between economic vulnerability and resource and environment vulnerability shows a trend of continuous decline. The policy support is quite different among regions and the overall pattern is stable. 4. Under the guidance and support of policy, resource development promotes economic development. The change of environmental quality and human welfare will ultimately affect the level of social development and the degree of social stability, and social development and stability will counteract economic development, environmental quality, resource development and policy making. This paper deconstructs the spatio-temporal dynamic process of man-land system in Northwest China from the perspective of "vulnerability", and provides theoretical and practical reference for the development of social economy in Northwest China.
【作者单位】：西北大学城市与环境学院;内蒙古财经大学资源与环境经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571163) 陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划(HSSTP)项目~~
【分类号】：C912.8

【参考文献】