中国当代家庭生命周期研究
发布时间：2018-11-17 15:41
【摘要】：本文使用1982年、1990年、2000年人口普查数据和1982年、1992年、2001年生育率调查数据,按照Glick提出的家庭生命周期的基本模型,详细分析了从1980年到2000年之间家庭生命周期的变化过程,包括初婚、初婚初育间隔、生育最后一个子女、第一个子女离家、最后一个子女离家、丧偶和死亡等重大生命事件,并将家庭生命周期按照核心家庭的历史,划分为形成、扩展、扩展完成、收缩、收缩完成和解体六个阶段。从家庭生命周期阶段持续年数的整体变动来看,家庭形成阶段的变化不大。家庭生命周期阶段持续时间的主要变动在形成阶段之后的五个阶段均有较大改变,其原因就是生育数量和死亡率的变化。由于生育子女数量的减少,家庭扩展阶段持续年数显著减少,由此带来的后果是扩展完成阶段持续年数的增加,而生育子女数量和年龄又影响到第一个子女离家时和最后一个子女离家时的年龄。家庭解体阶段中,男性持续时间相对较短,而女性持续时间相对较长,三个年度分析结果均显示女性持续时间在十年以上。 除了对家庭生命周期进行分析之外,本文还用1990年和2000年人口普查数据分县资料,使用分层线性模式的分析方法对家庭规模影响因素加以分析,试图厘清现代化和人口转变与家庭规模变动之间的关系。分析发现在生育政策稳定和人口转变基本完成之后,生育政策对家庭规模变化的影响带有一定的不确定性,进而也会影响到家庭生命周期变化的方向。同样使用2000年人口普查数据分县资料对离婚人口比例的分析发现,中国男性和女性的离婚比例变动模式是不一致的。 此外,本文还使用了人口普查数据分析中国家庭户的立户水平,从分析结果总体来看,中国独门立户的状况没有发生根本性的变化,标准化的立户指数标I h和I′h变动都是较小,男性户主仍然占据了主导性的地位,说明中国的家庭制度变革是较为缓慢的。成年人口的比例始终与立户水平有很稳健的联系,而且其相关程度越来越高,这说明中国人口独门立户遵循的一个重要原则是成年之后才离开家庭。同时也能够发现,未婚男性、未婚女性和无配偶女性的立户水平增长的尤为迅速。 中国家庭变迁受到以严格生育政策代表的社会制度变革和社会经济发展双重影响,家庭生命周期的变动也不可避免是双重影响叠加的后果。本文进一步分析了家庭生命周期的经济社会影响,并提出了相应的政策应对,还阐述了对中国家庭生命周期研究需要持续关注的重点问题。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the data of the 1982, 1990, 2000 census and the 1982, 1992, 2001 fertility survey data, according to the basic model of family life cycle proposed by Glick. The changes in the family life cycle from 1980 to 2000 are analyzed in detail, including major life events such as first marriage, spacing between first marriage and early childbearing, birth of the last child, first child leaving home, last child leaving home, widowhood and death, etc. According to the history of the nuclear family, the family life cycle is divided into six stages: formation, expansion, completion, contraction and disintegration. From the overall change of the number of years in the family life cycle, the change of the family formation stage is not significant. The main changes in the duration of the family life cycle are all changed in the five stages after the forming stage, which is due to the changes in the number of births and the death rate. As a result of the decrease in the number of children born, the number of years in the extended family expansion phase has been significantly reduced, with the consequence of an increase in the number of years that will last in the completion phase of the expansion, The number and age of children have an effect on the age of the first child and the last child. In the stage of family disintegration, the duration of men is relatively short, while that of women is relatively long. The results of three annual analyses show that the duration of women is more than ten years. In addition to the analysis of the family life cycle, the data of 1990 and 2000 censuses are used to analyze the influencing factors of family size by using the hierarchical linear model. Try to clarify the relationship between modernization and demographic changes and changes in household size. It is found that after the stability of fertility policy and the completion of population transition, the influence of fertility policy on family size change is uncertain, which will also affect the direction of family life cycle change. Using the 2000 census data to analyze the proportion of divorced population by county, it is found that the pattern of variation of divorce ratio between Chinese men and women is not the same. In addition, the paper also uses census data to analyze the household level of Chinese households. Overall, the situation of single-door households in China has not changed fundamentally. The standardized household indices I h and I h are both small, and male heads of household still dominate, indicating that China's family system change is slow. The proportion of the adult population is always closely related to the household level, and the correlation is increasing, which indicates that one of the important principles followed by the Chinese population is to leave the family after adulthood. At the same time, it can also be found that unmarried men, unmarried women and spousal women are growing rapidly. Family change in China is influenced by social system change and social economic development represented by strict fertility policy. The change of family life cycle is inevitably the result of double influence superposition. This paper further analyzes the economic and social impact of the family life cycle, puts forward the corresponding policy responses, and expounds the key issues that need to be continuously paid attention to in the study of the family life cycle in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C913.11
本文编号：2338335
[Abstract]:This paper uses the data of the 1982, 1990, 2000 census and the 1982, 1992, 2001 fertility survey data, according to the basic model of family life cycle proposed by Glick. The changes in the family life cycle from 1980 to 2000 are analyzed in detail, including major life events such as first marriage, spacing between first marriage and early childbearing, birth of the last child, first child leaving home, last child leaving home, widowhood and death, etc. According to the history of the nuclear family, the family life cycle is divided into six stages: formation, expansion, completion, contraction and disintegration. From the overall change of the number of years in the family life cycle, the change of the family formation stage is not significant. The main changes in the duration of the family life cycle are all changed in the five stages after the forming stage, which is due to the changes in the number of births and the death rate. As a result of the decrease in the number of children born, the number of years in the extended family expansion phase has been significantly reduced, with the consequence of an increase in the number of years that will last in the completion phase of the expansion, The number and age of children have an effect on the age of the first child and the last child. In the stage of family disintegration, the duration of men is relatively short, while that of women is relatively long. The results of three annual analyses show that the duration of women is more than ten years. In addition to the analysis of the family life cycle, the data of 1990 and 2000 censuses are used to analyze the influencing factors of family size by using the hierarchical linear model. Try to clarify the relationship between modernization and demographic changes and changes in household size. It is found that after the stability of fertility policy and the completion of population transition, the influence of fertility policy on family size change is uncertain, which will also affect the direction of family life cycle change. Using the 2000 census data to analyze the proportion of divorced population by county, it is found that the pattern of variation of divorce ratio between Chinese men and women is not the same. In addition, the paper also uses census data to analyze the household level of Chinese households. Overall, the situation of single-door households in China has not changed fundamentally. The standardized household indices I h and I h are both small, and male heads of household still dominate, indicating that China's family system change is slow. The proportion of the adult population is always closely related to the household level, and the correlation is increasing, which indicates that one of the important principles followed by the Chinese population is to leave the family after adulthood. At the same time, it can also be found that unmarried men, unmarried women and spousal women are growing rapidly. Family change in China is influenced by social system change and social economic development represented by strict fertility policy. The change of family life cycle is inevitably the result of double influence superposition. This paper further analyzes the economic and social impact of the family life cycle, puts forward the corresponding policy responses, and expounds the key issues that need to be continuously paid attention to in the study of the family life cycle in China.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C913.11
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