网络舆情演化机理多维建模与仿真研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 20:13

【摘要】：[目的/意义]研究网络舆情演化的多维度模型,从更高视角解读网络舆情传播规律,丰富和完善网络舆情传播理论。[方法/过程]定量分析网络舆情趋势预测中信息增长率的变化问题,构建以增长率和时间为自变量,信息累计数量为因变量的多维函数模型,并通过MATLAB仿真研究各个参数对网络舆情传播的影响以及网络舆情传播路径分析,然后通过"成都女司机"微博数据验证了模型的可行性,更加直观地诠释了高维模型研究网络舆情演化机理的优势。[结论/结果 ]经过理论建模和实证分析得出,将logistic模型拓展到高维研究网络舆情演化机理是可行的,并且多维度模型很好地解释了网络舆情数据出现多个"峰值"现象,而网络舆情统计数据的实质是高维度模型曲线在时间轴的投影。
[Abstract]:The purpose / significance of this paper is to study the multi-dimensional model of the evolution of network public opinion, to interpret the law of network public opinion from a higher angle of view, and to enrich and perfect the theory of network public opinion communication. [method / process] quantitative analysis of the change of information growth rate in the trend prediction of network public opinion, and construct a multidimensional function model which takes the growth rate and time as independent variables and the cumulative amount of information as dependent variables. And through the MATLAB simulation research each parameter to the network public opinion dissemination influence as well as the network public opinion dissemination path analysis, then through "Chengdu female driver" Weibo data has verified the model feasibility, A more intuitive interpretation of the high-dimensional model of network public opinion evolution mechanism advantages. [conclusion / result] after theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, it is concluded that it is feasible to extend the logistic model to study the evolution mechanism of network public opinion in high dimension, and the multi-dimensional model can explain the phenomenon of "peak value" of network public opinion data. The essence of the statistical data of network public opinion is the projection of the high-dimensional model curve on the time axis.
【作者单位】：中国人民武装警察部队学院;天津交通职业学院;
【基金】：河北省社会科学基金项目“面向突发事件的政务微媒体影响力提升策略研究”(项目编号:HB17XW025)
【分类号】：C912.63

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