基于AHP-模糊综合评价模型的上海城市社区风险评估研究
发布时间：2019-06-02 07:21
【摘要】：从灾害的影响来看,社区是承担灾害风险的主体,以社区为中心的灾害管理模式日益获得世界各国的重视。社区风险评估是灾害管理的第一步。 本研究通过层次分析法厘清上海城市社区风险评估指标体系的层次结构和权重,通过建立清晰易填的指标体系进行脆弱性评估,又通过运用模糊综合评价法进行致灾因子识别,再综合脆弱性评估和致灾因子识别获得综合风险度评价。并将该风险评估体系运用到上海24个不同类型的城市社区,其实用性和有效性得到初步检验。 该评估体系的确立,在两方面有所突破和创新。一是创造性地引入了模糊综合评价的方法,在城市社区这样一个小尺度下,对自然灾害、事故灾害、公共卫生事件和社会安全事件这四类突发公共事件的评价建立了一个统一的标准。二是综合脆弱性评估和致灾因子的作用,通过权重的调节来反映各个指标在最终综合评价中的贡献度,形成综合风险度。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the influence of disasters, the community is the main body to bear the disaster risk, and the community-centered disaster management model has been paid more and more attention by all countries in the world. Community risk assessment is the first step in disaster management. In this study, the hierarchical structure and weight of Shanghai urban community risk assessment index system are clarified by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the vulnerability assessment is carried out by establishing a clear and easy to fill index system, and the disaster factors are identified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Comprehensive risk assessment was obtained by comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster factor identification. The risk assessment system is applied to 24 different types of urban communities in Shanghai, and its practicability and effectiveness have been preliminarily tested. The establishment of the evaluation system has made breakthroughs and innovations in two aspects. First, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation has been creatively introduced to deal with natural disasters and accident disasters on such a small scale as urban communities. The evaluation of four kinds of public events, public health events and social security incidents, establishes a unified standard. The second is the function of comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster-causing factors, which reflects the contribution of each index in the final comprehensive evaluation through the adjustment of weight, and forms the comprehensive risk degree.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C912.8;F224
本文编号：2490922
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the influence of disasters, the community is the main body to bear the disaster risk, and the community-centered disaster management model has been paid more and more attention by all countries in the world. Community risk assessment is the first step in disaster management. In this study, the hierarchical structure and weight of Shanghai urban community risk assessment index system are clarified by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the vulnerability assessment is carried out by establishing a clear and easy to fill index system, and the disaster factors are identified by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Comprehensive risk assessment was obtained by comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster factor identification. The risk assessment system is applied to 24 different types of urban communities in Shanghai, and its practicability and effectiveness have been preliminarily tested. The establishment of the evaluation system has made breakthroughs and innovations in two aspects. First, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation has been creatively introduced to deal with natural disasters and accident disasters on such a small scale as urban communities. The evaluation of four kinds of public events, public health events and social security incidents, establishes a unified standard. The second is the function of comprehensive vulnerability assessment and disaster-causing factors, which reflects the contribution of each index in the final comprehensive evaluation through the adjustment of weight, and forms the comprehensive risk degree.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C912.8;F224
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 杨俊;王占岐;金贵;程丙银;侯现慧;;基于AHP与模糊综合评价的土地整治项目实施后效益评价[J];长江流域资源与环境;2013年08期
2 王冠坤;;AHP-模糊综合评价法在历史文化街区公共安全风险评估中的应用——以天津五大道为例[J];天津城市建设学院学报;2012年04期
，本文编号：2490922
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