北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望

发布时间：2018-02-23 20:53

本文关键词： 北大西洋公约组织核武器核态势核政策乌克兰危机欧美俄关系　出处：《国际安全研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：北大西洋公约组织作为军事同盟,自建立之初就以美国核武器的"延伸威慑"为安全保障。冷战时期,欧洲曾是美苏争夺霸权的重要战场,双方进行了疯狂的核军备竞赛,欧洲长时间笼罩在核阴云之中。冷战结束后,欧洲各国从核阴霾中成功走出,在美国的主导下,北约实力逐步走向全盛时期。出于对后冷战时期国际安全形势的乐观判断,北约的关注重点从单纯的传统军事防御向更加广泛的非传统安全领域扩展,核武器在北约防卫中的作用不断减弱,核武器规模不断裁减。然而,2014年的乌克兰危机给欧洲的战略格局带来巨大冲击,俄与美欧关系降至冰点,双方开始轮番展示核力量,核阴影再次重现欧洲上空。从北约核态势的历史演变轨迹和乌克兰危机对北约核态势的冲击中,人们能够窥见北约未来安全发展态势。当前北约与俄罗斯核态势的变化,预示着未来核竞赛模式与风险都会与冷战时期有所不同,意味着核门槛的降低以及核武器使用风险的增加,这对全球核不扩散机制、全球核裁军进程与全球军事竞争模式都将产生深远影响。
[Abstract]:The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as a military alliance, has used the "extended deterrence" of American nuclear weapons as a security guarantee since its inception. During the Cold War, Europe was an important battlefield in which the United States and the Soviet Union fought for hegemony, and the two sides engaged in a crazy nuclear arms race. Europe has been shrouded in the nuclear cloud for a long time. After the end of the Cold War, European countries successfully emerged from the nuclear haze. Under the leadership of the United States, NATO's strength gradually moved to its heyday. Based on an optimistic judgment on the international security situation in the post-Cold War era, NATO's focus has expanded from purely traditional military defence to a wider range of non-traditional security areas, and the role of nuclear weapons in NATO's defence has been diminishing. The scale of nuclear weapons has been continuously reduced. However, the Ukraine crisis in 2014 had a huge impact on the strategic pattern of Europe. Relations between Russia and the United States and Europe fell to a freezing point, and both sides began to display nuclear forces in turn. The nuclear shadow is once again over Europe. From the historical evolution of NATO's nuclear posture and the impact of the crisis in Ukraine on NATO's nuclear posture, people can see NATO's future security developments. The current changes in NATO and Russia's nuclear posture, Foreshadowing that the patterns and risks of the nuclear race in the future will be different from those of the cold war, which means that the nuclear threshold will be lowered and the risk of the use of nuclear weapons will increase, which will contribute to the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, Both the global nuclear disarmament process and the global military competition model will have a profound impact.
【作者单位】：北京应用物理与计算数学研究所;中国工程物理研究院战略研究中心;中国工程物理研究院战略研究中心军控研究室;
【分类号】：D815

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