公众立场与欧盟的未来——基于“欧洲晴雨表”的数据分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 14:58

本文选题：公众立场 + 欧盟　；参考：《欧洲研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文依据"欧洲晴雨表"的民意调查数据,对2005-2016年欧盟成员国公众的涉欧认知及其促动因素进行了系统考察。数据回归结果表明,宏观经济因素对公众的涉欧立场普遍具有较为显著的影响效力,但不同人群对欧盟政策性输出的感知程度有差异,其中对欧盟持比较认同和比较不认同立场者的反应性最强,持完全认同和完全不认同立场人群的反应性总体上最低,中立者在某些条件下的反应性强于完全认同和完全不认同者群体。总体来看,促进一体化的经济绩效依然是平抑民粹主义反欧浪潮的有效途径。因此,欧盟未来主要面临以下三大问题与挑战:一是联盟的决策如何有效避免国家主权主义与联邦主义者的过度干扰;二是如何在比较认同与比较不认同者之间寻找相对均衡的政策着力点;三是如何进一步强化对中立群体的政策投放。显然,欧盟的未来仍离不开精英的贡献,但根本上取决于绝大多数公众的认同与支持。只要联盟的政策性输出更加贴近多数公众的需求,英国脱欧及民粹主义反欧政党的崛起就不会对联盟构成解体的威胁。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of Eurobarometer, this paper makes a systematic study of the European Union member states' public perception of Europe and its motivating factors from 2005 to 2016.Among them, those who hold relatively or comparatively disapproved positions towards the EU are the most responsive, and those who hold full and totally disapproved positions have the lowest overall responsiveness.The neutrals are more reactive under certain conditions than those who fully identify with or do not agree with each other.Overall, the economic performance of promoting integration is still an effective way to quell the anti-European tide of populism.Therefore, the EU will face the following three major problems and challenges in the future: first, how to effectively avoid the excessive interference of state sovereignty and federalism in the decision-making of the Union;The second is how to find a relatively balanced policy point between the comparative identity and the comparative disapproval, and the third is how to further strengthen the policy investment to the neutral group.Clearly, the future of the EU still depends on the contribution of the elite, but fundamentally depends on the approval and support of the vast majority of the public.The rise of Brexit and populist anti-European parties will not pose a threat to the union as long as its policy output is closer to the needs of the majority of the public.
【作者单位】：中国政法大学政治与公共管理学院国际政治系;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“西方马克思主义论域中的欧洲一体化研究”(批准号:12BGJ021)的相关研究成果
【分类号】：D814.1

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