论安倍政权的修宪及其对亚太安全环境的影响

发布时间：2018-05-17 08:38

本文选题：安倍政权 + 日本修宪　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：二战后,美国为了对日本社会进行民主改造,清除日本军国主义复辟的土壤,一手为日本打造了和平宪法。根据宪法第9条之规定,日本永远放弃以行使武力或武力威胁为手段来解决国际争端,绝不发动战争,坚持基于正义与秩序的国际和平,为达到前项目的,不拥有军队和其他战争力量,并放弃国家的交战权。日本宪法是日本在反省二战错误后,向全世界作出的“公约”。但随着战后政治格局的变革以及日本国力的发展,日本政权在不同时期,都围绕着修改日本宪法问题做出了种种努力,试图突破日本宪法对发展军事力量的限制,实现“国家正常化”,谋求政治军事强国,以提高国际地位。当前的安倍政权,主张大幅度修宪,尤其是修改宪法第9条关于集体自卫权等问题的规定。2016年3月,日本新安保法正式生效,标志着战后奉行的“专守防卫”政策被彻底抛弃,和平宪法已名不副实。安倍政权推动修宪,有风云多变的国际背景,包括战后国际政治格局变化,近期日本周边局势的变革,美国国家利益的考量;整体右倾化的国内背景,包含政治领导团体的右倾化以及普通民众的右倾化;还有安倍晋三的个人政治理念也起到了助推作用。安倍修宪是有规律可循的,大体分为两大阶段:第一修宪前期准备。这一阶段,安倍政权为了顺利完成修宪的目标,尽可能多地获得来自国际国内的支持,在国内,先打出“安倍经济学”的招牌;在国外,打出“积极和平主义”的幌子。第二修宪具体步骤。这一时期被称作“安倍修宪三部曲”——控制参众两院;修改宪法第96条;修改宪法第9条。修宪发展到如今态势,安倍修宪的真正目的和动机也不再遮遮掩掩,摆脱战后体制,成为“正常国家”,增强政治军事实力,强化地区影响,颠覆政治秩序,扩大全球战略。假使安倍政权修宪成功,日本将持有军队和交战权,会变成一个强硬危险难以应对的日本,必然会给亚太地区安全带来诸多威胁。首先,安倍政权修宪会导致亚太地区局势的紧张,具体的会引起亚太国家的安全警惕,导致地区军备竞赛的升级,增加地区冲突风险;其次,对美国也将带来双重影响,短期内会加强日美同盟,这是符合美国意愿的,但从长期来看,日本亦可能成为美国潜在的头号威胁;最后,对中国带来的影响是最大的,一旦日本修宪成功,中国必定会加强对日本的戒备,引起中日矛盾的激化,衍生出中国与亚太其他国家的新矛盾。面对如此严峻的形势,中国必须沉着冷静,从整体认识安倍政权的修宪,看到对中国崛起的机遇和挑战,以积极应对日本修宪的可能性后果。
[Abstract]:After World War II, the United States created a peaceful constitution for Japan in order to reform the Japanese society and remove the soil of the restoration of Japanese militarism. In accordance with Article 9 of the Constitution, Japan will forever renounce the use of force or the threat of force as a means to resolve international disputes, will never wage war, and will insist on international peace based on justice and order. Do not have the army and other forces of war, and give up the country's right of engagement. The Constitution of Japan is the Convention that Japan made to the world after reflecting on its mistakes in World War II. However, with the changes in the political structure after the war and the development of Japan's national strength, the Japanese regime has made all kinds of efforts to amend the Japanese Constitution in different periods, in an attempt to break through the restrictions of the Japanese Constitution on the development of military power. To achieve the normalization of the country and seek political and military power in order to enhance its international status. In March 2016, the new Japanese security law came into effect, marking the complete abandonment of the post-war "self-defense" policy. The pacifist constitution is no longer true to its name. The Abe regime's push to amend the constitution has a volatile international background, including the post-war changes in the international political structure, the recent changes in the situation around Japan, the consideration of the national interests of the United States, and the overall right-leaning domestic background. This includes a rightwing of political leaders and a rightist shift of ordinary people, as well as Mr. Abe's personal political ideas. Abe's constitutional amendment is regular, generally divided into two stages: the first constitutional preparation. At this stage, in order to smoothly complete the goal of amending the Constitution, the Abe regime won as much international and domestic support as possible. At home, it first put up the signboard of "Abenomics"; abroad, it played the guise of "positive pacifism." The second concrete step of amending the constitution. This period was known as the Abe Constitutional Trilogy-controlling the House and Senate; amending Article 96 of the Constitution; amending Article 9 of the Constitution. The constitutional amendment has developed to the present situation, and the true purpose and motive of Abe's constitutional amendment is no longer concealed, and he is rid of the postwar system and becomes a "normal country," strengthens the political and military strength, strengthens the regional influence, subverts the political order, and expands the global strategy. If the Abe regime were to succeed, Japan would hold the military and belligerent power to become a tough and dangerous Japan that would pose a number of threats to the security of the Asia-Pacific region. First, the constitutional amendment by Abe's regime will lead to tension in the Asia-Pacific region, which will specifically arouse security vigilance among Asia-Pacific countries, lead to the escalation of the regional arms race, and increase the risk of regional conflicts. Secondly, it will also have a dual impact on the United States. The alliance between Japan and the United States will be strengthened in the short term. This is in line with the wishes of the United States. But in the long run, Japan may also become the potential number one threat to the United States. Finally, the impact on China will be the greatest. Once Japan succeeds in amending the Constitution, China is bound to strengthen its vigilance against Japan, causing the intensification of Sino-Japanese contradictions, and spawning new contradictions between China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. In the face of such a severe situation, China must be calm and calm, understand the constitutional amendment of Abe regime as a whole, and see the opportunities and challenges to China's rise in order to deal positively with the possible consequences of Japan's constitutional amendment.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D831.3

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