经典地缘政治的嬗变与巨型边缘地带强国的机遇

发布时间：2018-05-20 12:45

本文选题：经典地缘政治 + 强国兴衰　；参考：《东北亚论坛》2017年04期

【摘要】：英美经典地缘政治理论缘起于19世纪后半期的英俄亚洲博弈,但它存在两个严重的缺陷,因此尽管该理论有着一定的解释力和政策参考价值,但它却并不能准确全面地反映出近代以来国际政治格局变迁的历史事实。实际上,自拿破仑战争以来,国际政治格局并非总是海陆两极式的经典地缘政治格局,它有时还是多极或三极式的。所谓三极,即是指海上霸权国、枢纽地带强国和边缘地带强国三强并立的格局。近现代史上的欧洲传统边缘地带强国从未能成功地崛起为全球性强国,而经典地缘政治格局也往往形成于海陆强国联盟对边缘地带强国高强度的反制斗争中。导致欧洲传统边缘地带强国崛起失败的原因既在于边缘地带强国的地缘政治条件和政策选择,又在于海上霸权国、枢纽地带强国以及其它次级强国的内外形势和对外政策,而前者是主要原因。联系理论、历史经验与当前的形势,从地缘政治角度来看,后经典地缘政治时代下的七大有利条件为中国这个新兴的巨型边缘地带强国的继续崛起提供了相对良好的机遇。
[Abstract]:Anglo-American classic geopolitical theory originated from the Anglo-Russian Asian game in the second half of the 19th century, but it has two serious defects, so although the theory has some explanatory power and policy reference value, However, it can not reflect the historical facts of the change of international political pattern in modern times. In fact, since the Napoleon War, the international political pattern is not always the classic geopolitical pattern of sea and land polarity, it is sometimes multipolar or tripolar. The so-called Tripole refers to the pattern of sea hegemony, hub power and marginal power standing side by side. In the modern history, the European traditional marginal powers have never been able to rise to global power successfully, and the classical geopolitical pattern is often formed in the high-intensity anti-control struggle against the marginal countries by the alliance of the sea and land powers. The reasons for the failure of the rise of the European traditional marginal powers lie not only in the geopolitical conditions and policy choices of the marginal powers, but also in the internal and external situation and foreign policy of the maritime hegemony, the hub region and other secondary powers. The former is the main reason. From the point of view of geopolitics, the seven favorable conditions in the post-classical geopolitical era provide a relatively good opportunity for the continued rise of China, a new giant marginal power.
【作者单位】：北京大学国际关系学院;北京大学国际关系学院国际关系教研室;
【基金】：国家海洋局海洋发展战略研究所厅局级项目课题(2200299)
【分类号】：D81;K901.4

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