中俄在联合国安理会的合作及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 11:42

本文选题：联合国安理会 + 投票凝聚力指数IVC　；参考：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：中俄两国首脑在联合声明中多次提到要加强在联合国安理会内的协调与合作。投票凝聚力指数(IVC)可以作为评价两国在联合国安理会合作的指标。整体上看,中俄在安理会的凝聚力高于冷战刚结束时的情况,但是2010年后出现了微妙变化,中国在俄美之间呈现"摇摆"状态。从2011年开始,中俄的投票凝聚力指数连续4年下降。关于中俄安理会合作的影响因素,本文提出以下假设:(1)中俄在安理会的合作与中俄双边关系的友好程度正相关;(2)中俄在安理会的合作与中俄不断拉大的实力差距负相关;(3)中俄在安理会的合作与议案所涉及国家的地理位置有关。经过一系列量化和建模操作后,假设1、2通过了模型1的检验,假设3通过了模型2的检验。
[Abstract]:In a joint statement, the Chinese and Russian heads of state repeatedly mentioned the need to strengthen coordination and cooperation within the UN Security Council. The Voting cohesion Index (IVC) can be used as an indicator of cooperation between the two countries in the UN Security Council. Overall, China and Russia are more cohesive in the Security Council than they were at the end of the Cold War, but there have been subtle changes since 2010, with China showing a "swing" between Russia and the United States. Since 2011, China and Russia's voting cohesion index has fallen for four consecutive years. Regarding the influential factors of Sino-Russian Security Council cooperation, This paper puts forward the following assumption: (1) Sino-Russian cooperation in the Security Council is positively correlated with the degree of friendship between China and Russia; (2) the cooperation between China and Russia in the Security Council is negatively correlated with the widening gap in strength between China and Russia; (3) the cooperation and discussion between China and Russia in the Security Council The geographical location of the country involved in the case is relevant. After a series of quantization and modeling operations, hypothesis 1 passes the test of model 1 and hypothesis 3 passes the test of model 2.
【作者单位】：黑龙江大学马克思主义学院;
【分类号】：D822.351.2

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