朝核问题与中国政府的对策述评

发布时间：2018-06-01 00:47

本文选题：朝核危机 + “旁观为主”　；参考：《曲阜师范大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 朝核危机由来已久,自20世纪90年代爆发至今的近二十年里,危机反反复复,其产生的影响极为广泛。因此,朝核危机历来是各国政府及学术界关注的焦点。朝鲜与中国“唇齿相依”,朝核危机的解决攸关中国的安全及外交,是中国政府必须认真处理的一个关键问题。继90年代第一次朝核危机之后,2002年朝核危机再度爆发,美朝双方一度剑拔弩张。朝核危机成因复杂,美朝角力背景深刻,外交和平解决之路一波三折,前进中有反复、僵持中见起伏。作为冷战的“遗产”,朝核危机的爆发并不是偶然的,有着深刻的历史根源和现实诱因,既是20世纪90年代初核危机的延续,又是在新的国际环境下美朝矛盾的总爆发。朝核危机使冷战后东北亚地区潜藏的各种矛盾纷显出来,极大地震撼了东北亚地区格局,对冷战后的国际形势产生了重大消极影响。与朝鲜有着特殊历史关系的中国,在不同时期,外交政策又存在一定的变化与差异。具体来说,中国的朝核政策经历了两次调整：由“旁观为主”到“适度介入”,由“适度介入”到“积极斡旋”。作出这样的政策调整主要是中国自身认识转变的结果,但也不能忽视朝美等国家的促进作用。从“三方会谈”到“六方会谈”的召开,从朝美对立到对话的开展,从主席声明到共同文件的发表,中国在解决朝核危机过程中越来越发挥建设性作用,产生了积极影响。但因中国在解决朝核危机上的独特角色,她的“作为”必然要受到一定的局限。因此,解决朝核危机的外交进程要获得实质性进展,还有很长的路要走。展望朝核危机未来发展的趋向,笔者预测可能出现三种情况：通过双边或多边谈判,和平解决；美国对朝鲜实施经济制裁,甚至不惜对朝军事设施发起攻击,继而在东北亚引发一场局部战争；朝美双方互不相让,朝核危机久拖不决,朝鲜强行突破核门槛成为实际拥有核武器的国家。作为六方会谈主办国,在今后的时间里,中国将继续努力,根据事态发展适时调整外交策略,促使危机朝着有利于世界和谐发展的方向获得彻底解决。
[Abstract]:North Korea nuclear crisis has a long history, since the outbreak of the 1990s to nearly 20 years, the crisis over and over again, its impact is extremely extensive. Therefore, the North Korean nuclear crisis has always been the focus of attention of governments and academia. China's security and diplomacy are at stake in the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis, a key issue that the Chinese government must deal with seriously. After the first North Korean nuclear crisis in the 1990s, the North Korean nuclear crisis broke out again in 2002, and the United States and North Korea were at loggerheads. The cause of the North Korean nuclear crisis is complicated, the background of the US and North Korea wrestling is profound, the diplomatic peaceful settlement road is twists and turns, the progress has been repeated, and the stalemate has seen ups and downs. As the "legacy" of the Cold War, the outbreak of the North Korean nuclear crisis is not accidental. It has profound historical roots and realistic inducements. It is not only the continuation of the nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, but also the total outbreak of the contradiction between the United States and the DPRK under the new international environment. The nuclear crisis in North Korea has brought out all kinds of hidden contradictions in Northeast Asia after the Cold War, greatly shocked the pattern of Northeast Asia, and had a significant negative impact on the international situation after the Cold War. China, which has special historical relationship with North Korea, has some changes and differences in foreign policy in different periods. Specifically, China's North Korean nuclear policy has undergone two adjustments: from "onlookers" to "moderate intervention", from "moderate intervention" to "positive mediation". Such a policy adjustment is mainly the result of China's own change of perception, but it should not ignore the promoting role of countries such as North Korea and the United States. From the "tripartite talks" to the "six-party talks", from the confrontation between the DPRK and the United States to the development of the dialogue, from the presidential statement to the publication of the joint document, China has played a more and more constructive role in the process of resolving the DPRK nuclear crisis and has had a positive impact. However, due to China's unique role in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis, her action is bound to be limited. Therefore, there is still a long way to go before substantial progress is made in the diplomatic process to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. Looking forward to the future development trend of the North Korean nuclear crisis, the author predicts that there may be three possible situations: peaceful settlement through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, economic sanctions imposed by the United States against the DPRK, and even attacks on military installations in the DPRK. Then a local war was triggered in Northeast Asia; the DPRK and the United States did not give way to each other, and the North Korean nuclear crisis dragged on for a long time, and North Korea forcibly broke through the nuclear threshold to become a country that actually possessed nuclear weapons. As the host country of the Six-Party talks, China will continue to make efforts to adjust its diplomatic strategy in accordance with the developments in the future, so that the crisis can be resolved once and for all in a direction conducive to the harmonious development of the world.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D815.2;D822.3

【引证文献】