东亚变局与两岸关系走向

发布时间：2018-06-01 11:17

本文选题：东亚局势 + 两岸关系　；参考：《国际问题研究》2014年06期

【摘要】：在美国"重返亚洲"影响下,东亚地区局势变化复杂,虽未直接冲击两岸关系和平发展的良好局面,但由大国博弈引发的区域紧张及合纵连横不可避免地投射到两岸关系上,并对两岸关系产生微妙影响。在美日等外部势力加大对中国牵制力度的背景下,台湾当局的大陆政策趋向保守,两岸关系受到的牵制力加大。当前,两岸关系保持和平稳定的发展局面,反映了大陆强力主导下的两岸关系已具有较强的抗干扰能力。未来一段时期,两岸关系基本不会脱离和平发展轨道,但发展势头或将趋缓,面临的不确定因素有所增加,存在出现波折甚至震荡的可能。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of "returning to Asia" by the United States, the situation in East Asia is complex and complex. Although it has not directly impacted on the good situation of the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, the regional tensions and confluence caused by the game of great powers are inevitably projected onto cross-strait relations. And has a subtle impact on cross-straits relations. Under the background that the United States and Japan and other external forces increase their restraint on China, the mainland policy of the Taiwan authorities tends to be conservative, and the restraint on cross-strait relations increases. At present, the development of maintaining peace and stability in cross-strait relations reflects the strong anti-interference capability of cross-strait relations under the mainland's strong leadership. For some time in the future, cross-strait relations will not be divorced from the track of peaceful development, but the momentum of development may slow down, and the uncertain factors facing them will increase, and there may be twists and turns or even shocks.
【作者单位】：中国社科院台湾研究所;
【分类号】：D618;D831

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