美国与全球化关系的再定义——高度不确定的未来

发布时间：2018-06-07 10:53

本文选题：美国 + 身份认同　；参考：《国际展望》2017年01期

【摘要】：2016年总统大选标志着美国与全球化的关系进入一个新的时期,即重新界定美国与全球化关系的时期。特朗普反对自由贸易协定,支持收缩移民政策,反对所谓的"政治正确"(political correctness),其成功当选的主要原因包括:第一,在全球化冲击下,美国中产阶级出现"空心化"现象。一方面,中产阶级中下层特别是蓝领工人的工作岗位不保,经济利益受损;另一方面,社会财富分配严重不公,社会流动性减弱,"美国梦"的实现难度陡增。第二,"美国身份认同"危机因人口结构的迅速变化及文化多元化发展而爆发,令部分白人产生严重的不适与不安。第三,政治极化使两党难以在国会内达成妥协,联邦政府工作效率低下,民众对政治精英和主要政党的信任度降到历史低点。美国政治体系"失效",令民粹主义抬头。特朗普政府上台后,短期内将推行逆全球化的经济政策;继续将外部因素作为"替罪羊",以回应国内民众的诉求;外交政策会出现回摆,但美国不会退出全球化。外界不应高估美国的逆全球化立场和影响,但应做好准备应对一个倾向"孤立"的美国。
[Abstract]:The 2016 presidential election marks the beginning of a new era in the relationship between the United States and globalization, that is, redefining the relationship between the United States and globalization. Trump's opposition to free trade agreements, his support for shrinking immigration policies and his opposition to the so-called "politically correct" political correctness are among the main reasons for his successful election: first, the "hollowing" of the middle class in the United States under the impact of globalization. On the one hand, the jobs of the middle and lower middle class, especially the blue-collar workers, lose their economic interests; on the other hand, the distribution of social wealth is seriously unfair, social mobility is weakened, and the realization of the "American Dream" has become more difficult. Second, the crisis of "American identity" broke out because of the rapid changes in population structure and the development of cultural diversity, which caused serious discomfort and unease to some white people. Third, political polarization has made it difficult for the two parties to reach a compromise in Congress, the federal government is inefficient and trust in the political elite and major political parties has fallen to an all-time low. The failure of the American political system led to the rise of populism. In the short term, the Trump administration will pursue anti-globalisation economic policies; continue to use external factors as scapegoats to respond to domestic demands; and foreign policy will return, but the United States will not pull out of globalisation. The outside world should not overestimate the anti-globalization stance and influence of the United States, but should be prepared to deal with a "isolated" America.
【作者单位】：上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心;
【分类号】：F114.41;D871.2

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