中东地区核扩散问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 01:32

本文选题：中东地区 + 核扩散　；参考：《北京外国语大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：由于核武器具有常规武器无法替代的多重效应,核威慑具有常规军力无法达成的战略价值,在政治形势最严峻、安全结构最脆弱的中东地区,仍有个别国家无视国际法的存在,投入大量财力物力,力图拥有核武器以求得战略制衡。中东地区核扩散问题历史久远。20世纪70年代以来,以色列就掌握了核技术,成为事实上的“有核国家”。埃及、利比亚、伊拉克、伊朗等国也曾一度着手进行核研发,但均因种种原因而半途停滞或取消。冷战结束后,以大国强权为轴心的国际体系失衡,导致防核扩散所需的制衡力量有所减弱；以大国利益为核心的核不扩散机制存在双重标准,致使国际社会制约作用日趋式微。特别是在2003年伊拉克战争后,受美国单边主义政策和先发制人战略刺激,核威慑作为中东地区最有效的战略制衡手段再度受到各国青睐。继以色列核问题之后,伊朗核问题日益凸显,2006年起部分阿拉伯国家又相继提出核开发计划。目前,中东地区的核扩散范围日趋扩大,包括事实上的核国家——如以色列,积极推动核计划的国家——如伊朗,核计划进展缓慢的国家——如埃及、阿尔及利亚,新近开始谋求实施核计划的国家——如沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋等。中东各国以往的历史矛盾与当今的现实利益交错萦绕,国际大国的利益角逐与国际社会的调解压力相互碰撞,致使中东核扩散问题发展态势复杂、前景难测。因此,以中东地区的核扩散问题为主要研究对象,梳理发展历程、分析产生原因、评估当前态势、展望未来走向,具有一定学术价值及现实意义。本文从分析中东地区核扩散问题的发展过程入手,第一章主要以时间为序,借助历史分析法、文献分析法、案例分析法,阐明中东国家核选择的历史渊源,总结中东国家核能力的发展历程。第二章在综合大量数据分析的基础上,对以色列、伊朗、埃及等阿拉伯国家目前的核能力进行综合评估,对中东地区核扩散的现状进行具体解析。第三章引入国际关系现实主义理论中的“安全困境”("security dilemma")、“实力均势”("balance of power")等理论模式,在分析中东国家核选择的内部动因、阐述中东国家核选择现状的基础上总结中东国家核选择与中东地区核扩散之间的关系。第四章从域外大国的中东政策着手,研究美、俄、中等国以及欧盟对中东国家核选择的态度,归纳这些国家或组织对中东核扩散问题的影响。第五章以中东地区核军备控制机制为研究对象,从国际法、国际机构等角度出发,剖析中东核军备控制机制施行困难的症结。第六章分析当前影响中东地区核不扩散的正反两方面因素,预测中东核扩散问题的发展前景。本文经过研究得出结论：核因素的加入,不仅为中东地区增添了新的威胁,更使本来就存在的矛盾态势更加纷繁复杂。目前,中东地区的核扩散正处于“既有近忧,也有远虑”的严峻态势。从地区内部看,中东国家出于对绝对安全的追逐、对地区主导的渴求、对能源压力的缓解等因素,暂时不会停止对核能力的追求。从外部影响看,由于一定程度上国际法规的缺失、国际机构保障不力、大国的双重标准等因素的影响,中东地区核扩散态势在未来一段时间内仍会继续升级加剧。中东地区核军控的全面建立、核扩散的有效遏止、核安全的真正实现,必须构建在地区政治和安全环境全面改善的基础之上。
[Abstract]:Because nuclear weapons have multiple effects that conventional weapons cannot replace, nuclear deterrence has the strategic value that conventional military forces can't reach. In the Middle East, where the political situation is the most severe and the most vulnerable in the security structure, there are still some countries who ignore the existence of international law and invest a lot of financial and material resources, trying to have nuclear weapons to achieve strategic checks and balances. Since the history of nuclear proliferation in the region long since the 70s.20 century, Israel has mastered nuclear technology and became a de facto "nuclear state". Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Iran and other countries have also begun to carry out nuclear research and development, but they all stopped or cancelled for a variety of reasons. After the end of the cold war, the international system with the power of power as an axis was lost. Balance, the balance force needed to prevent nuclear proliferation has been weakened; the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, with the interests of the great powers, has double standards, which has resulted in the declining role of the international community. In particular, after the Iraq war in 2003, the nuclear deterrence was the most effective in the Middle East, under the US unilateralism and preemptive warfare. After the Israeli nuclear issue, the nuclear issue of Iran has become increasingly prominent. In 2006, some Arabia countries have proposed a nuclear development program.
At present, the range of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is growing, including de facto nuclear countries such as Israel, such as Iran, countries such as Egypt and Algeria, such as Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are actively promoting nuclear programs, such as Iran, and Algeria. The historical contradictions and current realities are interlace, and the interests of the international powers collide with the mediation pressure of the international community, which makes the development of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East complicated and unpredictable. Therefore, the problem of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is the main object of research, combing the development process, analyzing the causes and assessing the current state. It has certain academic value and practical significance to look forward to the future trend.
This article starts with the analysis of the development process of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The first chapter mainly takes time as a preface, with the aid of historical analysis, literature analysis and case analysis, to clarify the historical origin of nuclear choice in the Middle East countries and summarize the development course of the nuclear ability of the Middle East countries. The second chapter is on the basis of comprehensive data analysis to Israel, Iran, Egypt and other Arabia countries present a comprehensive assessment of nuclear capacity in the Middle East. The third chapter introduces the "security dilemma" ("security dilemma"), "power balance" ("balance of power") and other theoretical models, in the analysis of the nuclear choice of the Middle East countries. On the basis of the internal motivation, the relationship between the nuclear choice of Middle East countries and the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is summarized on the basis of the present situation of the Middle East countries' nuclear choice. The fourth chapter begins with the Middle East policy of the extraterritorial countries to study the attitude of the United States, Russia, middle countries and the EU on the nuclear choice of the Middle East countries, and the reflection of these countries or organizations on the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The fifth chapter takes the nuclear arms control mechanism in the Middle East as the research object, and analyzes the crux of the difficulties in the Middle East nuclear arms control mechanism in the Middle East from the perspectives of international law and international institutions. The sixth chapter analyzes the positive and negative factors that affect the nuclear non-proliferation in the middle East, and predicts the prospects for the development of the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
The conclusion of this paper is that the accession of nuclear factors not only adds new threats to the Middle East, but also makes the existing contradiction more complicated. At present, the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is in a severe situation of "both concerns and concerns". From the regional perspective, the Middle East countries are pursuing the absolute security. From the external influence, the nuclear proliferation situation in the Middle East will continue to escalate in the next period of time due to the lack of international regulations, the inability of international institutions and the double standards of great powers. The comprehensive establishment of nuclear arms control in the Middle East, the effective suppression of nuclear proliferation and the real realization of nuclear security must be built on the basis of the comprehensive improvement of the regional political and security environment.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：K15;D815.2

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