国际战略互动中的实力评估差

发布时间：2018-06-19 10:35

本文选题：实力评估差 + 国际战略互动　；参考：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：国家制定国际战略时,必须首先对自己的实力有客观清晰的认识,同时对在国际格局中的对手进行实力评估,需要进行评估的内容包括国家的自身属性型实力和赋予型实力。国家根据评估的结果来确定适合于本国发展的目标。每个希望有所作为的国家都会为本国制定国际战略,这就会使潜在的对手国家在评估自身与他国实力时,不可避免的产生战略互动,而目标的制定也会随着自身与他国对本国的实力评估差异而有所变化,从而影响到该国国际战略的绩效。在评估的互动过程中会出现“自估差”与“互估差”,当“自估差”大约为零时,“互估差”就成为决定战略选择空间的关键因素。在力量彼此不平衡的两国竞争中,双方评估差值越小(评估精准度高),则彼此可利用的战略空间越小,差值越大,则赋予本国的战略空间越大、越有可能压缩对手的战略空间,从而使制定具有比较优势的国际战略成为可能。将战略空间中可用的战略选择按攻守性质和敌对程度可以分为制衡战略、故意妨碍战略与约束战略,国家可以根据评估差的大小,以“可接受的损失”为大概界限做出战略选择与组合。
[Abstract]:When a country formulates an international strategy, it must first have an objective and clear understanding of its own strength, and at the same time evaluate the strength of its opponents in the international structure. On the basis of the results of the assessment, countries determine objectives appropriate to their own development. Every country that wants to make a difference will develop an international strategy for itself, which will inevitably lead to strategic interaction among potential rival countries in assessing their own strength with other countries. The formulation of goals will change with the difference of their own and other countries' evaluation of their own strength, thus affecting the performance of the country's international strategy. In the interactive process of evaluation, there will be "self-estimate" and "mutual estimation". When "self-estimate" is about 00:00, "mutual evaluation" becomes the key factor to decide the space of strategic choice. In the competition between the two countries, where the power is not balanced, the smaller the difference between the two countries (the higher the accuracy of the assessment, the smaller the strategic space available to each other, the greater the difference, the greater the strategic space given to the country and the more likely it is to reduce the strategic space of the opponent. Thus, it is possible to make a comparative advantage of the international strategy. According to the nature of attack and defense and the degree of hostility, the available strategic choices in the strategic space can be divided into checks and balances strategies, intentionally obstructing strategies and constraining strategies. Make strategic choices and combinations with acceptable loss as the general boundary.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D80

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