“东突”恐怖主义威胁风险评估及管理研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 00:30

本文选题：东突恐怖主义 + 风险评估　；参考：《国防科学技术大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：东突恐怖主义给我国的边疆安全及社会稳定带来了巨大的威胁,对其风险进行分析与评估具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。特别是对维护我国的边疆安全与社会稳定具有重要的指导意义。本文以东突恐怖主义的威胁风险作为研究对象,对此问题进行了研究。主要工作及创新点如下:(1)研究了东突恐怖组织的网络结构。掌握东突恐怖组织的基本情况,并对其网络结构进行研究,可以为研究其风险打下一定的基础。(2)对东突恐怖组织的威胁风险进行了研究。结合东突恐怖组织的网络结构特点,通过开源情报分析,对东突恐怖组织的地理位置风险、国家关键性基础设施及国家安全风险等进行了分析。(3)对东突恐怖主义的风险评估。应用模糊方法及社会网络分析法对东突恐怖组织的风险进行了评估,为东突恐怖主义的风险管理提供决策依据。(4)提出了东突恐怖主义的风险管理措施。在风险分析及评估的基础上,本文从采取积极的反恐政策、社会预警、情报预警、武力打击角度对东突恐怖组织的风险管理进行了研究。以达到预防与打击东突恐怖组织的目的,以全面实现对其风险进行管理。
[Abstract]:East Turkistan terrorism has brought great threat to the security and social stability of our border area. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to analyze and evaluate its risk. Especially, it has important guiding significance to maintain the security and social stability of our border area. This paper studies the threat risk of East Turkistan terrorism. The main work and innovations are as follows: (1) the network structure of East Turkistan terrorist organization is studied. Mastering the basic situation of the East Turkistan terrorist organization and studying its network structure can lay a certain foundation for the study of its risk. (2) the threat risk of the East Turkistan terrorist organization is studied. Combined with the network characteristics of the East Turkistan terrorist organization, through the open source intelligence analysis, the paper analyzes the risk of the East Turkistan terrorist organization's geographical location, the national key infrastructure and the national security risk. (3) the risk assessment of the East Turkistan terrorism. The risk of East Turkistan terrorist organization is evaluated by using fuzzy method and social network analysis method, and the decision basis for risk management of East Turkistan terrorism is provided. (4) the risk management measures of East Turkistan terrorism are put forward. On the basis of risk analysis and evaluation, this paper studies the risk management of East Turkistan terrorist organization from the angle of adopting active anti-terrorism policy, social early warning, intelligence warning and force strike. In order to prevent and combat the East Turkistan terrorist organizations, to achieve the full implementation of risk management.
【学位授予单位】：国防科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D815.5

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